Osasuna VS Getafe Football Prediction 31/08/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Osasuna vs Getafe

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Osasuna 10, Getafe 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

OsasunaGetafe

1.47 xG per 90 0.73

1.24 npxG per 90 0.65

13.1 PPDA 10.5

4.7 Deep completions per 90 3.0

1.79 xPTS per 90 0.95

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Osasuna vs Getafe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Osasuna	Draw	Getafe
Model	58%	27%	15%
Market	44%	33%	23%
Published	47%	31%	21%
Edge	+14%	-6%	-8%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.85.
The market prices Osasuna below the model: +13.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Osasuna vs Getafe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Osasuna, 14 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 2.10Now 2.18 +0.08

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Osasuna	2.10	2.18	+0.08
Draw	3.20	2.91	-0.29
Getafe	3.50	4.10	+0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Osasuna and Getafe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71Osasuna

0.85Getafe

Total expected goals: 2.56
Attack rating (Osasuna / Getafe): 1.07 / 0.86
Defence rating (Osasuna / Getafe): 0.87 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Osasuna vs Getafe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.3% 3.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1 10.6% 13.0% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3% 2 11.4% 9.7% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 3 6.8% 5.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 4.6% 3.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Osasuna goals. Columns: Getafe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Osasuna vs Getafe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 49%

Over 3.5 27%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Osasuna vs Getafe

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Osasuna	47%	2.12
	Draw	31%	3.18
	Getafe	21%	4.69
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	49%	2.03
	Under 2.5	51%	1.97
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	2.00
	No	50%	2.00
Double chance	1X (Osasuna or draw)	79%	1.27
	12 (either side)	69%	1.46
	X2 (draw or Getafe)	53%	1.90
Handicap -1	Osasuna win by 2+	34%	2.91
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Osasuna and Getafe recent form

Osasuna 1W 1D 4L

Getafe 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Osasuna at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-0
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 1

Getafe away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 3.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Osasuna at home only, Getafe away only.

Injuries & availability

Osasuna absences

V. Rosier hamstring injury

Getafe absences

A. Abqar injury
C. Uche knee injury
Juanmi injury
M. Martin injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Osasuna vs Getafe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Osasuna 2 · draws 2 · Getafe 6.

20% 20% 60%

OsasunaDrawsGetafe

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-05-23	Getafe	1-0	Osasuna	La Liga
2025-10-03	Osasuna	2-1	Getafe	La Liga
2025-03-16	Osasuna	1-2	Getafe	La Liga
2024-10-05	Getafe	1-1	Osasuna	La Liga
2024-01-21	Osasuna	3-2	Getafe	La Liga
2023-09-17	Getafe	3-2	Osasuna	La Liga
2023-05-28	Getafe	2-1	Osasuna	La Liga
2022-09-18	Osasuna	0-2	Getafe	La Liga
2022-05-11	Osasuna	1-1	Getafe	La Liga
2021-12-19	Getafe	1-0	Osasuna	La Liga

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Real Madrid v Malaga — match page 2026-08-30
Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia — team news & stats 2026-08-30
Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-08-30

Before and after this match

Osasuna, next: Alaves v Osasuna analysis
Getafe, next: Getafe vs Celta Vigo prediction