Elche vs Celta Vigo preview
Elche has a 37% probability of winning, while Celta Vigo stands at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to the model. Elche's expected goals are 1.57, compared to Celta Vigo's 1.26. Both teams to score has a likelihood of 60%, and there is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored.
Recent form shows Elche with one win in their last six matches, while Celta Vigo has managed one win in their last six as well. The head-to-head record is evenly split, with each team winning once in their last two encounters. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form raises questions about both teams' current capabilities.
Why this pick: Elche vs Celta Vigo
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Elche 10, Celta Vigo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Elche vs Celta Vigo: model vs market
| Source | Elche | Draw | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| Market | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Published | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Edge | +10% | 0% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.26.
- The market prices Elche below the model: +10.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.93, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Elche vs Celta Vigo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Elche, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 2.92 | 2.80 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.27 | +0.01 |
| Celta Vigo | 2.52 | 2.60 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Elche and Celta Vigo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Elche / Celta Vigo)
- 0.97 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Elche / Celta Vigo)
- 1.30 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Elche vs Celta Vigo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Elche goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Elche vs Celta Vigo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Elche vs Celta Vigo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Elche | 37% | 2.73 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Celta Vigo | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Elche or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Celta Vigo) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Elche win by 2+ | 24% | 4.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Elche and Celta Vigo recent form
Elche
1W 1D 4L
Celta Vigo
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Elche at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 3.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Celta Vigo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Elche at home only, Celta Vigo away only.
Injuries & availability
Elche
- Buba Sangare muscle injury
- F. Redondo Solari suspended
-
Y. Santiago
knee injury
Celta Vigo
-
A. Antanon
ankle injury
- C. Starfelt injury
-
J. El Abdellaoui
knee injury
-
M. Roman
knee injury
- S. Caceres injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Elche vs Celta Vigo head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Elche 1 · draws 0 · Celta Vigo 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Celta Vigo | 3-1 | Elche | La Liga |
| 2025-09-28 | Elche | 2-1 | Celta Vigo | La Liga |
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