Valencia vs Athletic Club preview
Valencia has a 30% chance of winning, while Athletic Club stands at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a 9% probability. Valencia's expected goals are 1.29 compared to Athletic Club's 1.57. Both teams to score has a 61% likelihood, and over 2.5 goals is predicted at 56%.
Recent form shows Valencia with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Athletic Club has 2 wins in their last 6. In their last 10 encounters, Valencia has won 3 times, and Athletic Club has won 6 times. The confidence grade is A, but the recent performances raise questions about Valencia's ability to secure points.
Why this pick: Valencia vs Athletic Club
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Valencia 10, Athletic Club 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Valencia vs Athletic Club: model vs market
| Source | Valencia | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Market | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Published | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Valencia vs Athletic Club odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 3.60 | 3.25 | -0.35 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.32 | -0.10 |
| Athletic Club | 2.08 | 2.29 | +0.21 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Valencia and Athletic Club expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.87
- Attack rating (Valencia / Athletic Club)
- 0.88 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Valencia / Athletic Club)
- 1.18 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Valencia vs Athletic Club score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Valencia vs Athletic Club goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Valencia vs Athletic Club
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valencia | 30% | 3.36 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Athletic Club | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.64 |
| No | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Valencia or draw) | 59% | 1.71 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Athletic Club) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win by 2+ | 21% | 4.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Valencia and Athletic Club recent form
Valencia
1W 1D 4L
Athletic Club
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Valencia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Athletic Club away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Valencia at home only, Athletic Club away only.
Injuries & availability
Valencia absences
-
D. Foulquier
injury
-
D. Lopez
knee injury
-
J. Copete
knee injury
-
S. Canos
knee injury
-
U. Sadiq
muscle injury
Athletic Club absences
-
A. Djalo
illness
- N. Williams thigh injury
- O. Sancet muscle injury
-
U. Egiluz
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Valencia lineup · 5-4-1
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 14 José Gayà
- 12 J. de Haas
- 18 Pepelu
- 5 César Tárrega
- 24 Pablo Maffeo
- 7 A. Danjuma
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 8 Javi Guerra
- 19 Dani Raba
- 9 Hugo Duro
Bench: M. Diakhaby, H. Elliott, Luis Rioja, A. Dieng, Jesús Vázquez, Arnau Martínez, F. Ugrinic, K. van Oevelen, David Otorbi, Aaron Mayol, Aimar Blázquez, R. Sato
Athletic Club lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 Unai Simón
- 31 J. Louis-Jean
- 14 Aymeric Laporte
- 4 Aitor Paredes
- 15 Hugo Rincón
- 24 Beñat Gerenabarrena
- 16 Ruíz de Galarreta
- 7 Álex Berenguer
- 28 Peio Canales
- 23 Robert Navarro
- 9 I. Williams
Bench: Dani Vivian, Yeray, Beñat Prados, Gorka Guruzeta, Jesús Areso, Álex Padilla, Yuri, Mikel Jauregizar, Alejandro Rego, Maroan Sannadi, Nico Serrano, Christian Imga
Valencia vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Valencia 3 · draws 1 · Athletic Club 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Athletic Club | 0-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2026-02-04 | Valencia | 1-2 | Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
| 2025-09-20 | Valencia | 2-0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2025-05-18 | Valencia | 0-1 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2024-08-28 | Athletic Club | 1-0 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2024-01-20 | Valencia | 1-0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2023-10-29 | Athletic Club | 2-2 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2023-02-11 | Valencia | 1-2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2023-01-26 | Valencia | 1-3 | Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
| 2022-08-21 | Athletic Club | 1-0 | Valencia | La Liga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Deportivo La Coruna v Levante — match page 2026-10-16
- Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Villarreal vs Elche — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Real Betis vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Osasuna vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves 2026-10-18
- Malaga v Real Sociedad — match page 2026-10-18
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Valencia, previous: Racing Santander – Valencia, 2026-10-11
- Valencia, next: Valencia vs Villarreal prediction
- Athletic Club, previous: Athletic Club – Alaves, 2026-09-19
- Athletic Club, next: Levante vs Athletic Club prediction