Alaves vs Atletico Madrid preview
Alaves has a 28% chance of winning, while Atletico Madrid stands at 46%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 7% probability. Alaves has an expected goals figure of 1.58 compared to Atletico Madrid's 1.31. The data suggests a higher likelihood of both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Recent form shows Alaves with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Atletico Madrid has three wins and two losses in the same period. In their last 10 encounters, Alaves has won 2, drawn 2, and lost 6 against Atletico Madrid. The confidence grade is A, but the variability in expected goals raises some uncertainty.
Why this pick: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Alaves 10, Atletico Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: model vs market
| Source | Alaves | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Published | 27% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | +21% | +3% | -25% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Madrid, 66 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 3.74 | 4.31 | +0.57 |
| Draw | 3.57 | 3.74 | +0.17 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.98 | 1.81 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alaves and Atletico Madrid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Alaves / Atletico Madrid)
- 1.02 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Alaves / Atletico Madrid)
- 0.86 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alaves goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 27% | 3.65 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Atletico Madrid | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alaves or draw) | 54% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Madrid) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win by 2+ | 13% | 7.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Alaves and Atletico Madrid recent form
Alaves
2W 2D 2L
Atletico Madrid
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alaves at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atletico Madrid away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alaves at home only, Atletico Madrid away only.
Injuries & availability
Alaves
-
F. Garces
suspended
-
M. Rodriguez
ankle injury
- V. Koski muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Alaves 2 · draws 2 · Atletico Madrid 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Atletico Madrid | 1-0 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2025-08-30 | Alaves | 1-1 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-05-03 | Alaves | 0-0 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2024-11-23 | Atletico Madrid | 2-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2024-04-21 | Alaves | 2-0 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2023-10-29 | Atletico Madrid | 2-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2022-04-02 | Atletico Madrid | 4-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2021-09-25 | Alaves | 1-0 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| 2021-03-21 | Atletico Madrid | 1-0 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2021-01-03 | Alaves | 1-2 | Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
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