Why this pick: Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Werder Bremen 10, SC Paderborn 07 5). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07: model vs market
| Source | Werder Bremen | Draw | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Edge | -19% | +7% | +12% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Werder Bremen, 53 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Werder Bremen | 1.55 | 1.79 | +0.24 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.14 | -0.06 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 5.50 | 4.10 | -1.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Werder Bremen / SC Paderborn 07)
- 0.82 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Werder Bremen / SC Paderborn 07)
- 1.09 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Werder Bremen goals. Columns: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Werder Bremen | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Werder Bremen or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or SC Paderborn 07) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Werder Bremen win by 2+ | 17% | 5.90 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Werder Bremen and SC Paderborn 07 recent form
Werder Bremen
3W 2D 1L
SC Paderborn 07
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Werder Bremen at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
SC Paderborn 07 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Werder Bremen at home only, SC Paderborn 07 away only.
Injuries & availability
Werder Bremen absences
-
F. Agu
calf injury
-
J. Njinmah
thigh injury
-
J. Stage
muscle injury
-
K. Topp
knee injury
-
M. N'Diaye
groin injury
- S. Alvero calf injury
-
S. Lynen
hip injury
- S. Musah muscle injury
SC Paderborn 07 absences
-
N. Awortwie-Grant
knee injury
-
S. Klaas
muscle injury
-
T. Gayret
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Werder Bremen lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 K. Hein
- 2 O. Deman
- 32 M. Friedl
- 5 A. Pieper
- 17 M. Grüll
- 44 Y. Regeer
- 15 L. Reis
- 13 Arthur
- 20 Chuky San José
- 18 E. Dinkçi
- 10 N. Füllkrug
Bench: O. Wójcik, N. Stark, M. Weiser, Dariusz Stalmach, C. Itten, A. Schlager, Mick Schmetgens, D. Soylu, P. Erevbenagie
SC Paderborn 07 lineup · 3-5-2
- 15 N. Noll
- 22 M. Hansen
- 25 T. Scheller
- 21 J. ter Horst
- 23 R. Obermair
- 40 G. Vidović
- 5 S. Castañeda
- 28 L. Ulrich
- 17 L. Curda
- 30 S. Marino
- 27 S. Tigges
Bench: M. Schubert, Ruben Müller, Jonah Benedict Sticker, T. Baack, R. Philippe, S. Michel, M. Pieringer, C. Lippmann, D. Zeitler
Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07 head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Werder Bremen 4 · draws 3 · SC Paderborn 07 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Werder Bremen | 2-2 | SC Paderborn 07 | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-10-30 | SC Paderborn 07 | 0-1 | Werder Bremen | DFB Pokal |
| 2022-10-19 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2-2 | Werder Bremen | DFB Pokal |
| 2022-01-22 | SC Paderborn 07 | 3-4 | Werder Bremen | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2021-08-15 | Werder Bremen | 1-4 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2020-06-13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1-5 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2019-12-08 | Werder Bremen | 0-1 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 2015-04-26 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2-2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2014-11-29 | Werder Bremen | 4-0 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne 2026-10-16
- FC Schalke 04 v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-17
- Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund 2026-10-17
- SV Elversberg v Augsburg — match page 2026-10-17
- Bayern Munich vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Borussia M.Gladbach v Hoffenheim — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Werder Bremen, previous: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: odds and pick
- Werder Bremen, next: Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen prediction
- SC Paderborn 07, previous: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart prediction
- SC Paderborn 07, next: SC Paderborn 07 v Hamburger SV analysis