SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart preview
SC Paderborn 07 has a 25% probability of winning, while VfB Stuttgart stands at 53%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. SC Paderborn 07 has an expected goals figure of 2.24 compared to VfB Stuttgart's 1.78. Both teams to score is projected at 74%, and there is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows SC Paderborn 07 with two wins, one draw, and two losses, while VfB Stuttgart has two wins and four losses in their last six matches. In their last three encounters, SC Paderborn 07 has not secured a win, recording 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses against VfB Stuttgart. The confidence grade is B, but the recent form of both teams raises uncertainty.
Why this pick: SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SC Paderborn 07 4, VfB Stuttgart 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart: model vs market
| Source | SC Paderborn 07 | Draw | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 24% | 33% |
| Market | 20% | 21% | 60% |
| Published | 25% | 22% | 53% |
| Edge | +23% | +4% | -27% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.64, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VfB Stuttgart, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 4.55 | 4.85 | +0.29 |
| Draw | 4.41 | 4.65 | +0.25 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.62 | 1.60 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.02
- Attack rating (SC Paderborn 07 / VfB Stuttgart)
- 0.99 / 1.23
- Defence rating (SC Paderborn 07 / VfB Stuttgart)
- 1.00 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Columns: VfB Stuttgart goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Paderborn 07 | 25% | 3.94 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.65 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.36 |
| No | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SC Paderborn 07 or draw) | 47% | 2.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or VfB Stuttgart) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | VfB Stuttgart win by 2+ | 18% | 5.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
SC Paderborn 07 and VfB Stuttgart recent form
SC Paderborn 07
3W 1D 2L
VfB Stuttgart
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SC Paderborn 07 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
VfB Stuttgart away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 at home only, VfB Stuttgart away only.
Injuries & availability
SC Paderborn 07
-
L. Eickel
back injury
- M. Hoffmeier muscle injury
-
N. Awortwie-Grant
knee injury
-
S. Klaas
muscle injury
-
T. Gayret
knee injury
VfB Stuttgart
- A. Al Dakhil knee injury
-
D. Zagadou
muscle injury
-
J. Diehl
muscle injury
-
N. Nartey
muscle injury
-
T. Tomas
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 0 · draws 1 · VfB Stuttgart 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-31 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1-2 | VfB Stuttgart | DFB Pokal |
| 2015-05-23 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2014-12-20 | VfB Stuttgart | 0-0 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
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