Why this pick: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Eintracht Frankfurt 10, FC Cologne 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne: model vs market
| Source | Eintracht Frankfurt | Draw | FC Cologne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 21% | 27% |
| Market | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Published | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Edge | +3% | -2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 1.88.
- The market prices Eintracht Frankfurt below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Eintracht Frankfurt, 38 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.95 | 1.92 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.05 | +0.15 |
| FC Cologne | 3.30 | 3.40 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Cologne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.75
- Attack rating (Eintracht Frankfurt / FC Cologne)
- 1.42 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Eintracht Frankfurt / FC Cologne)
- 1.09 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Columns: FC Cologne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.42 | |
| FC Cologne | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.26 |
| No | 21% | 4.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Eintracht Frankfurt or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Cologne) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eintracht Frankfurt win by 2+ | 34% | 2.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Cologne recent form
Eintracht Frankfurt
2W 3D 1L
FC Cologne
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Eintracht Frankfurt at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
FC Cologne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt at home only, FC Cologne away only.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Cologne head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Eintracht Frankfurt 1 · draws 2 · FC Cologne 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-2 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-22 | FC Cologne | 3-4 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2024-02-03 | FC Cologne | 2-0 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2023-09-03 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
Before and after this match
- Eintracht Frankfurt, previous: RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt analysis
- FC Cologne, previous: FC Cologne – Borussia M.Gladbach, 2026-10-11