Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 5

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

· Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund· Referee Christian Dingert

BCCFC prediction Borussia Dortmund to win

Ablended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Borussia DortmundDrawWerder Bremen
Best market odds
Borussia Dortmund1.40 Draw5.94 Werder Bremen8.40
Bet on Borussia Dortmund

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen preview

Borussia Dortmund has a 72% probability of winning against Werder Bremen, who sit at 11%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which occurs with a 10% probability. Dortmund's expected goals stand at 2.71, while Bremen's is significantly lower at 0.92. This indicates a potential disparity in attacking output, but it does not prove that Dortmund will score two goals or that Bremen will fail to score.

Dortmund's recent form shows six consecutive wins, while Bremen's last six matches include three wins and three losses. In their last 10 encounters, Dortmund has won 7 times, with Bremen winning only once. The confidence grade for this match is A, reflecting strong backing for Dortmund, yet the head-to-head record raises questions about Bremen's ability to compete effectively.

Why this pick: Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia Dortmund 10, Werder Bremen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
2.31 xG per 90 1.15
2.31 npxG per 90 1.08
12.1 PPDA 14.8
7.9 Deep completions per 90 6.3
2.07 xPTS per 90 0.90

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBorussia DortmundDrawWerder Bremen
Model69%20%11%
Market71%17%12%
Published70%18%12%
Edge-2%+3%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 0.92.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.40Now 1.35 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Borussia Dortmund1.401.35-0.04
Draw5.135.55+0.42
Werder Bremen6.587.95+1.37

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.71Borussia Dortmund
0.92Werder Bremen
Total expected goals
3.64
Attack rating (Borussia Dortmund / Werder Bremen)
1.43 / 0.86
Defence rating (Borussia Dortmund / Werder Bremen)
0.74 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 1.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1 6.9% 9.4% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 2 10.3% 9.5% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 3 8.4% 7.7% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 9.1% 8.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.3%

Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: Werder Bremen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Borussia Dortmund70%1.42
Draw18%5.57
Werder Bremen12%8.52
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.89
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.77
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (Borussia Dortmund or draw)88%1.13
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Werder Bremen)30%3.37
Handicap -1Borussia Dortmund win by 2+48%2.06
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen recent form

Borussia Dortmund 6W 0D 0L
Werder Bremen 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Borussia Dortmund at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.50
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2

Werder Bremen away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund at home only, Werder Bremen away only.

Injuries & availability

Borussia Dortmund

  • C. Chukwuemeka muscle injury
  • E. Can knee injury
  • F. Mane muscle injury
  • G. Konstantelias knee injury
  • J. Lerma muscle injury
  • J. Ryerson ribs injury
  • K. Karetsas illness

Werder Bremen

  • F. Agu calf injury
  • J. Njinmah thigh injury
  • J. Stage muscle injury
  • K. Topp knee injury
  • M. N'Diaye groin injury
  • S. Alvero calf injury
  • S. Lynen hip injury
  • S. Musah muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Borussia Dortmund · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 G. Kobel
  2. 4 N. Schlotterbeck
  3. 3 W. Anton
  4. 22 Kouakou Joane Gadou
  5. 24 D. Svensson
  6. 8 F. Nmecha
  7. 7 J. Bellingham
  8. 20 M. Sabitzer
  9. 14 M. Beier
  10. 18 E. Nwaneri
  11. 9 S. Guirassy

Bench: R. Bensebaïni, K. Karetsas, Fábio Silva, J. Veerman, A. Meyer, Kauã Prates, S. Inacio, M. Albert, L. Reggiani

Werder Bremen · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 K. Hein
  2. 2 O. Deman
  3. 32 M. Friedl
  4. 5 A. Pieper
  5. 13 Arthur
  6. 44 Y. Regeer
  7. 15 L. Reis
  8. 17 M. Grüll
  9. 20 Chuky San José
  10. 18 E. Dinkçi
  11. 10 N. Füllkrug

Bench: O. Wójcik, N. Stark, M. Weiser, Dariusz Stalmach, C. Itten, A. Schlager, Mick Schmetgens, P. Erevbenagie

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 7 · draws 2 · Werder Bremen 1.

Borussia DortmundDrawsWerder Bremen
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-16Werder Bremen0-2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2026-01-13Borussia Dortmund3-0Werder BremenBundesliga
2025-01-25Borussia Dortmund2-2Werder BremenBundesliga
2024-08-31Werder Bremen0-0Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2024-03-09Werder Bremen1-2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2023-10-20Borussia Dortmund1-0Werder BremenBundesliga
2023-02-11Werder Bremen0-2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2022-08-20Borussia Dortmund2-3Werder BremenBundesliga
2021-04-18Borussia Dortmund4-1Werder BremenBundesliga
2020-12-15Werder Bremen1-2Borussia DortmundBundesliga

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Prediction snapshot Borussia Dortmund to win Predicted score 2 – 0 A Bet on Borussia Dortmund
Our pick: Borussia Dortmund to win 18+ Bet Now