Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 6

FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05

· VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen· Referee Richard Hempel

Full time0 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Mainz 05 to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC Schalke 04DrawMainz 05

Why this pick: FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Schalke 04 5, Mainz 05 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FC Schalke 04Mainz 05
1.39 xG per 90 2.72
1.39 npxG per 90 2.56
22.2 PPDA 14.5
5.4 Deep completions per 90 8.8
0.92 xPTS per 90 1.89

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC Schalke 04DrawMainz 05
Model32%26%42%
Market32%26%42%
Published32%26%42%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mainz 05, 53 snapshots since 2026-09-21.

Opened 2.45Now 2.29 -0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Schalke 042.623.04+0.42
Draw3.503.64+0.14
Mainz 052.452.29-0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Schalke 04 and Mainz 05 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77FC Schalke 04
1.84Mainz 05
Total expected goals
3.60
Attack rating (FC Schalke 04 / Mainz 05)
0.91 / 1.59
Defence rating (FC Schalke 04 / Mainz 05)
0.80 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 4.1% 5.5% 3.4% 2.3% 1 3.3% 11.4% 8.7% 5.3% 3.7% 2 4.1% 7.5% 6.9% 4.2% 3.0% 3 2.2% 4.0% 3.7% 2.2% 1.6% 4+ 1.2% 2.3% 2.1% 1.3% 0.9%

Rows: FC Schalke 04 goals. Columns: Mainz 05 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 67%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Schalke 0432%3.16
Draw26%3.80
Mainz 0542%2.38
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567%1.50
Under 2.533%2.99
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.21
Double chance1X (FC Schalke 04 or draw)58%1.72
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Mainz 05)68%1.46
Handicap -1Mainz 05 win by 2+24%4.21
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Schalke 04 and Mainz 05 recent form

FC Schalke 04 2W 2D 2L
Mainz 05 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Schalke 04 at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
2 of 2
  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Mainz 05 away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 at home only, Mainz 05 away only.

Injuries & availability

FC Schalke 04 absences

  • D. Ljubicic knee injury
  • M. Sylla leg injury

Mainz 05 absences

  • D. Kohr foot injury
  • O. Ruoppi knee injury
  • R. Zentner hand injury
  • Silas broken shinbone

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

FC Schalke 04 lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 L. Karius
  2. 5 T. Becker
  3. 25 N. Katić
  4. 4 H. Kuruçay
  5. 8 R. Gosens
  6. 13 S. Tanaka
  7. 23 S. El-Faouzi
  8. 17 A. Gantenbein
  9. 24 A. Aouchiche
  10. 19 K. Karaman
  11. 10 E. Džeko

Bench: R. Schallenberg, Hwang Hee-Chan, J. Adamu, K. Müller, J. Dina Ebimbe, Vitalie Becker, L. Vozar, M. Wöber, M. Ayhan

Mainz 05 lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 A. Schwolow
  2. 48 K. Potulski
  3. 4 S. Posch
  4. 21 D. da Costa
  5. 2 P. Mwene
  6. 10 N. Amiri
  7. 6 K. Sano
  8. 7 Lee Jae-Sung
  9. 19 A. Caci
  10. 23 S. Becker
  11. 9 P. Tietz

Bench: F. Gruber, E. Martel, P. Nebel, R. Königsdörffer, L. Maloney, B. Hollerbach, S. Widmer, M. Kinzig, R. Nakuzola

FC Schalke 04 vs Mainz 05 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Schalke 04 6 · draws 3 · Mainz 05 1.

FC Schalke 04DrawsMainz 05
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-05-05Mainz 052-3FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2022-11-09FC Schalke 041-0Mainz 05Bundesliga
2021-03-05FC Schalke 040-0Mainz 05Bundesliga
2020-11-07Mainz 052-2FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2020-02-16Mainz 050-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2019-09-20FC Schalke 042-1Mainz 05Bundesliga
2019-02-23Mainz 053-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2018-09-29FC Schalke 041-0Mainz 05Bundesliga
2018-03-09Mainz 050-1FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2017-10-20FC Schalke 042-0Mainz 05Bundesliga

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match