Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 4

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg

· Weser-Stadion, Bremen· Referee Bastian Dankert

Full time3 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Augsburg to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Werder BremenDrawAugsburg

Why this pick: Werder Bremen vs Augsburg

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Werder Bremen 10, Augsburg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Werder BremenAugsburg
1.01 xG per 90 2.31
0.94 npxG per 90 2.15
14.7 PPDA 25.0
5.9 Deep completions per 90 7.0
0.74 xPTS per 90 1.66

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWerder BremenDrawAugsburg
Model26%26%48%
Market41%25%34%
Published37%25%38%
Edge-15%+1%+14%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.60.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Augsburg below the model: +14.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Augsburg, 25 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 2.80Now 2.80 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Werder Bremen2.202.31+0.11
Draw3.603.84+0.24
Augsburg2.802.80+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Werder Bremen and Augsburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.60Werder Bremen
1.97Augsburg
Total expected goals
3.58
Attack rating (Werder Bremen / Augsburg)
0.83 / 1.24
Defence rating (Werder Bremen / Augsburg)
1.09 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.2% 4.6% 6.4% 4.2% 3.3% 1 2.9% 11.2% 9.2% 6.1% 4.7% 2 3.4% 6.8% 6.7% 4.4% 3.4% 3 1.6% 3.2% 3.2% 2.1% 1.6% 4+ 0.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.8%

Rows: Werder Bremen goals. Columns: Augsburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Werder Bremen vs Augsburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Werder Bremen37%2.67
Draw25%4.00
Augsburg38%2.67
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.51
Under 2.534%2.97
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.48
No32%3.09
Double chance1X (Werder Bremen or draw)62%1.60
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Augsburg)63%1.60
Handicap -1Augsburg win by 2+29%3.49
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Werder Bremen and Augsburg recent form

Werder Bremen 2W 1D 3L
Augsburg 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Werder Bremen at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Augsburg away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Werder Bremen at home only, Augsburg away only.

Injuries & availability

Werder Bremen absences

  • F. Agu calf injury
  • J. Njinmah thigh injury
  • J. Stage muscle injury
  • K. Topp knee injury
  • M. N'Diaye groin injury
  • S. Lynen hip injury

Augsburg absences

  • A. Kade injury
  • F. Sakar ankle injury
  • S. Mounie injury
  • S. Suso muscle injury
  • T. Breithaupt injury
  • T. Schnitzer injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Werder Bremen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 K. Hein
  2. 2 O. Deman
  3. 32 M. Friedl
  4. 5 A. Pieper
  5. 13 Arthur
  6. 15 L. Reis
  7. 44 Y. Regeer
  8. 17 M. Grüll
  9. 20 Chuky San José
  10. 18 E. Dinkçi
  11. 10 N. Füllkrug

Bench: O. Wójcik, N. Stark, M. Weiser, Dariusz Stalmach, C. Itten, Salim Amani Musah, A. Schlager, Mick Schmetgens, P. Erevbenagie

Augsburg lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 F. Dahmen
  2. 2 C. Brackelmann
  3. 5 C. Matsima
  4. 40 Noahkai Kai Daniel Banks
  5. 16 Hennes Behrens
  6. 32 F. Rieder
  7. 4 H. Massengo
  8. 27 M. Wolf
  9. 10 M. Kömür
  10. 19 R. Fellhauer
  11. 11 M. Gregoritsch

Bench: J. Gouweleeuw, Seol Young-Woo, Rodrigo Ribeiro, Y. Keitel, A. Claude-Maurice, A. Ibrahimović, N. Labrović, Abdulay Bah, U. Ogundu

Werder Bremen vs Augsburg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Werder Bremen 3 · draws 2 · Augsburg 5.

Werder BremenDrawsAugsburg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Werder Bremen1-3AugsburgBundesliga
2025-12-20Augsburg0-0Werder BremenBundesliga
2025-01-19Werder Bremen0-2AugsburgBundesliga
2024-08-24Augsburg2-2Werder BremenBundesliga
2024-04-27Augsburg0-3Werder BremenBundesliga
2023-12-09Werder Bremen2-0AugsburgBundesliga
2023-03-04Augsburg2-1Werder BremenBundesliga
2022-09-09Werder Bremen0-1AugsburgBundesliga
2021-05-15Augsburg2-0Werder BremenBundesliga
2021-01-16Werder Bremen2-0AugsburgBundesliga

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match