Why this pick: FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Schalke 04 3, SV Elversberg 3). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg: model vs market
| Source | FC Schalke 04 | Draw | SV Elversberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Published | 46% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | -9% | +2% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Schalke 04, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 1.75 | 1.98 | +0.23 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.75 | +0.15 |
| SV Elversberg | 4.20 | 3.55 | -0.65 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Schalke 04 and SV Elversberg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.44
- Attack rating (FC Schalke 04 / SV Elversberg)
- 1.02 / 1.35
- Defence rating (FC Schalke 04 / SV Elversberg)
- 0.80 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Schalke 04 goals. Columns: SV Elversberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Schalke 04 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| SV Elversberg | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Schalke 04 or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or SV Elversberg) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Schalke 04 win by 2+ | 21% | 4.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Schalke 04 and SV Elversberg recent form
FC Schalke 04
3W 1D 2L
SV Elversberg
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Schalke 04 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
SV Elversberg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 at home only, SV Elversberg away only.
Injuries & availability
FC Schalke 04 absences
-
D. Ljubicic
knee injury
SV Elversberg absences
-
F. Onyeka
injury
-
L. Schnellbacher
illness
-
L. Seifert
ankle injury
-
T. Zimmerschied
back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
FC Schalke 04 lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 L. Karius
- 4 H. Kuruçay
- 25 N. Katić
- 5 T. Becker
- 8 R. Gosens
- 13 S. Tanaka
- 23 S. El-Faouzi
- 29 J. Dina Ebimbe
- 24 A. Aouchiche
- 19 K. Karaman
- 10 E. Džeko
Bench: R. Schallenberg, Hwang Hee-Chan, M. Sylla, J. Adamu, K. Müller, Vitalie Becker, L. Vozar, M. Wöber, M. Ayhan
SV Elversberg lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 20 N. Kristof
- 21 L. Günther
- 31 M. Rohr
- 19 L. Pinckert
- 30 J. Gyamerah
- 8 Ł. Poręba
- 43 F. Keidel
- 39 William Cole Campbell
- 10 Noah Darvich
- 25 L. Petkov
- 42 D. Mokwa
Bench: N. Mickelson, F. Le Joncour, A. Condé, M. Krattenmacher, N. Futkeu, L. Schnellbacher, L. Sirch, T. Boss, Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka
FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: FC Schalke 04 3 · draws 1 · SV Elversberg 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | SV Elversberg | 1-2 | FC Schalke 04 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-08 | FC Schalke 04 | 1-0 | SV Elversberg | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2025-05-18 | FC Schalke 04 | 1-2 | SV Elversberg | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-20 | SV Elversberg | 1-4 | FC Schalke 04 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2024-04-19 | SV Elversberg | 1-1 | FC Schalke 04 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2023-11-10 | FC Schalke 04 | 1-2 | SV Elversberg | 2. Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin — team news & stats 2026-09-18
- Werder Bremen vs Augsburg 2026-09-19
- Borussia M.Gladbach v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-09-19
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne 2026-09-19
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund — match page 2026-09-19
- Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- SC Paderborn 07 v Hoffenheim — match page 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- FC Schalke 04, previous: Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04: odds and pick
- FC Schalke 04, next: Freiburg – FC Schalke 04, 2026-10-11
- SV Elversberg, previous: SV Elversberg vs Bayern Munich: odds and pick
- SV Elversberg, next: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg: odds and pick