Augsburg vs Bayern Munich preview
Augsburg has an 11% chance of winning, while Bayern Munich sits at 75%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Augsburg's expected goals stand at 1.62 compared to Bayern Munich's 2.76. This indicates a significant disparity in attacking potential, yet it does not guarantee a straightforward outcome.
Bayern Munich has won 8 of the last 10 encounters against Augsburg, who have managed 2 wins. Recent form shows Augsburg with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Bayern Munich has 5 wins in the same span. The confidence grade is A, but the recent performance of Augsburg raises questions about their ability to compete effectively.
Why this pick: Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Augsburg 10, Bayern Munich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich: model vs market
| Source | Augsburg | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Market | 8% | 11% | 80% |
| Published | 11% | 13% | 76% |
| Edge | +9% | +8% | -17% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.76 vs 1.62.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 9.75 | 11.25 | +1.50 |
| Draw | 7.40 | 8.50 | +1.10 |
| Bayern Munich | 1.21 | 1.18 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Augsburg and Bayern Munich expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.39
- Attack rating (Augsburg / Bayern Munich)
- 1.17 / 1.73
- Defence rating (Augsburg / Bayern Munich)
- 1.10 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Augsburg goals. Columns: Bayern Munich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Augsburg vs Bayern Munich
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Augsburg | 11% | 9.42 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.60 | |
| Bayern Munich | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.26 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Augsburg or draw) | 24% | 4.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| X2 (draw or Bayern Munich) | 89% | 1.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayern Munich win by 2+ | 45% | 2.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Augsburg and Bayern Munich recent form
Augsburg
3W 1D 2L
Bayern Munich
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Augsburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Bayern Munich away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Augsburg at home only, Bayern Munich away only.
Injuries & availability
Augsburg
- N. Banks knee injury
-
S. Mounie
injury
-
S. Suso
muscle injury
-
T. Breithaupt
toe injury
Bayern Munich
-
J. Musiala
muscle injury
-
T. Buchmann
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Augsburg 2 · draws 0 · Bayern Munich 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Bayern Munich | 1-2 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-08-30 | Augsburg | 2-3 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-04 | Augsburg | 1-3 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2024-11-22 | Bayern Munich | 3-0 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-01-27 | Augsburg | 2-3 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2023-08-27 | Bayern Munich | 3-1 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2023-03-11 | Bayern Munich | 5-3 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2022-10-19 | Augsburg | 2-5 | Bayern Munich | DFB Pokal |
| 2022-09-17 | Augsburg | 1-0 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga |
| 2022-04-09 | Bayern Munich | 1-0 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
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