Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 4

Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin

· Allianz Arena, Munich· Referee Benjamin Brand

Full time7 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Bayern Munich to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 3 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bayern MunichDrawUnion Berlin

Why this pick: Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bayern Munich 10, Union Berlin 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Bayern MunichUnion Berlin
2.91 xG per 90 1.64
2.81 npxG per 90 1.64
8.0 PPDA 13.2
18.2 Deep completions per 90 6.4
1.97 xPTS per 90 1.34

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBayern MunichDrawUnion Berlin
Model81%12%7%
Market92%6%3%
Published89%7%4%
Edge-10%+6%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.96 vs 1.11.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 24 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 1.07Now 1.05 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bayern Munich1.071.05-0.02
Draw8.0017.00+9.00
Union Berlin11.5034.00+22.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bayern Munich and Union Berlin expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.96Bayern Munich
1.11Union Berlin
Total expected goals
5.07
Attack rating (Bayern Munich / Union Berlin)
1.65 / 1.04
Defence rating (Bayern Munich / Union Berlin)
0.73 / 1.31

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1 2.6% 4.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 2 6.0% 6.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 3 7.1% 7.8% 4.3% 1.6% 0.6% 4+ 15.8% 17.4% 9.6% 3.6% 1.2%

Rows: Bayern Munich goals. Columns: Union Berlin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 95%
Over 2.5 84%
Over 3.5 69%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bayern Munich89%1.12
Draw7%13.90
Union Berlin4%26.31
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584%1.18
Under 2.516%6.43
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.52
No34%2.92
Double chance1X (Bayern Munich or draw)96%1.04
12 (either side)93%1.08
X2 (draw or Union Berlin)11%9.09
Handicap -1Bayern Munich win by 2+66%1.51
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bayern Munich and Union Berlin recent form

Bayern Munich 5W 1D 0L
Union Berlin 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bayern Munich at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
5.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Union Berlin away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Bayern Munich at home only, Union Berlin away only.

Injuries & availability

Bayern Munich absences

  • T. Buchmann knee injury

Union Berlin absences

  • A. Ilic illness
  • A. Markgraf knee injury
  • J. Juranovic illness
  • K. Imeri thigh injury
  • M. Friedrich injury
  • O. Burke achilles tendon injury
  • S. Nsoki muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bayern Munich lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Neuer
  2. 19 A. Davies
  3. 4 J. Tah
  4. 2 D. Upamecano
  5. 44 J. Stanišić
  6. 45 A. Pavlović
  7. 6 J. Kimmich
  8. 14 L. Díaz
  9. 10 J. Musiala
  10. 17 M. Olise
  11. 9 H. Kane

Bench: Kim Min-Jae, S. Gnabry, T. Bischof, N. Brown, H. Ito, I. Saibari, Bara Ndiaye, J. Urbig, L. Karl

Union Berlin lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 F. Rønnow
  2. 15 T. Rothe
  3. 2 F. Uduokhai
  4. 14 L. Querfeld
  5. 28 C. Trimmel
  6. 8 R. Khedira
  7. 20 M. Aebischer
  8. 11 Jeong Woo-Yeong
  9. 13 A. Schäfer
  10. 19 J. Haberer
  11. 29 E. Latte Lath

Bench: Z. Van Den Bosch, A. Kemlein, Livan Burcu, D. Köhn, T. Skarke, R. Skov, M. Ljubičić, K. Imeri, M. Raab

Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bayern Munich 7 · draws 3 · Union Berlin 0.

Bayern MunichDrawsUnion Berlin
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Bayern Munich4-0Union BerlinBundesliga
2025-12-03Union Berlin2-3Bayern MunichDFB Pokal
2025-11-08Union Berlin2-2Bayern MunichBundesliga
2025-03-15Union Berlin1-1Bayern MunichBundesliga
2024-11-02Bayern Munich3-0Union BerlinBundesliga
2024-04-20Union Berlin1-5Bayern MunichBundesliga
2024-01-24Bayern Munich1-0Union BerlinBundesliga
2023-02-26Bayern Munich3-0Union BerlinBundesliga
2022-09-03Union Berlin1-1Bayern MunichBundesliga
2022-03-19Bayern Munich4-0Union BerlinBundesliga

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match