Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 4

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

· BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen· Referee Robert Schroder

Full time2 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Bayer Leverkusen to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bayer LeverkusenDrawRasenBallsport Leipzig

Why this pick: Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bayer Leverkusen 10, RasenBallsport Leipzig 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Bayer LeverkusenRasenBallsport Leipzig
2.59 xG per 90 2.48
2.43 npxG per 90 2.48
12.6 PPDA 11.3
14.2 Deep completions per 90 11.2
1.86 xPTS per 90 1.92

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBayer LeverkusenDrawRasenBallsport Leipzig
Model51%23%27%
Market49%23%28%
Published50%23%28%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.69.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 19 snapshots since 2026-09-11.

Opened 1.90Now 1.95 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bayer Leverkusen1.901.95+0.05
Draw4.154.20+0.05
RasenBallsport Leipzig3.613.40-0.21

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bayer Leverkusen and RasenBallsport Leipzig expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.58Bayer Leverkusen
1.69RasenBallsport Leipzig
Total expected goals
4.27
Attack rating (Bayer Leverkusen / RasenBallsport Leipzig)
1.38 / 1.39
Defence rating (Bayer Leverkusen / RasenBallsport Leipzig)
0.83 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 1.6% 2.6% 1.4% 0.9% 1 2.8% 8.5% 6.0% 3.4% 2.1% 2 4.9% 8.3% 7.0% 3.9% 2.4% 3 3.8% 6.4% 5.4% 3.0% 1.9% 4+ 3.8% 6.4% 5.4% 3.0% 1.9%

Rows: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Columns: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 57%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bayer Leverkusen50%2.02
Draw23%4.40
RasenBallsport Leipzig28%3.60
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.31
Under 2.524%4.22
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%3.99
Double chance1X (Bayer Leverkusen or draw)72%1.38
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or RasenBallsport Leipzig)50%1.98
Handicap -1Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+32%3.10
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bayer Leverkusen and RasenBallsport Leipzig recent form

Bayer Leverkusen 3W 2D 1L
RasenBallsport Leipzig 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bayer Leverkusen at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

RasenBallsport Leipzig away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Bayer Leverkusen at home only, RasenBallsport Leipzig away only.

Injuries & availability

Bayer Leverkusen absences

  • G. Doue muscle injury
  • K. Eichhorn illness
  • M. Culbreath injury
  • N. Tella injury

RasenBallsport Leipzig absences

  • A. Ouedraogo shoulder injury
  • C. Baumgartner thigh injury
  • M. Guiu hamstring injury
  • R. Reitz muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Bayer Leverkusen lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 M. Flekken
  2. 12 E. Tapsoba
  3. 2 F. Medina
  4. 4 J. Quansah
  5. 3 Miguel Gutiérrez
  6. 24 Aleix García
  7. 6 E. Fernández
  8. 19 M. Diaby
  9. 9 Afonso Moreira
  10. 30 I. Maza
  11. 14 P. Schick

Bench: L. Badé, J. Hofmann, R. Andrich, M. Tillman, M. Terrier, Lucas Vázquez, V. Boniface, J. Blaswich, Christian Kofane

RasenBallsport Leipzig lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 26 M. Vandevoordt
  2. 22 D. Raum
  3. 3 M. Estève
  4. 4 W. Orbán
  5. 17 R. Baku
  6. 6 E. Banzuzi
  7. 28 C. Nkunku
  8. 21 N. El Aynaoui
  9. 7 A. Nusa
  10. 40 Rômulo
  11. 10 B. Gruda

Bench: Ø. Nyland, A. Koné, N. Seiwald, L. Klostermann, T. Gomis, A. Maksimović, Max Finkgräfe, B. Henrichs, S. Konate

Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 6 · draws 1 · RasenBallsport Leipzig 3.

Bayer LeverkusenDrawsRasenBallsport Leipzig
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-02Bayer Leverkusen4-1RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2025-12-20RasenBallsport Leipzig1-3Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2025-01-25RasenBallsport Leipzig2-2Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2024-08-31Bayer Leverkusen2-3RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2024-01-20RasenBallsport Leipzig2-3Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2023-08-19Bayer Leverkusen3-2RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2023-04-23Bayer Leverkusen2-0RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2022-10-29RasenBallsport Leipzig2-0Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
2022-04-17Bayer Leverkusen0-1RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2021-11-28RasenBallsport Leipzig1-3Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match