Why this pick: FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Cologne 10, Werder Bremen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen: model vs market
| Source | FC Cologne | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Market | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Published | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.38.
- The market prices FC Cologne below the model: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cologne, 27 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne | 2.35 | 2.05 | -0.30 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.80 | +0.30 |
| Werder Bremen | 2.70 | 3.40 | +0.70 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cologne and Werder Bremen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.70
- Attack rating (FC Cologne / Werder Bremen)
- 1.17 / 0.84
- Defence rating (FC Cologne / Werder Bremen)
- 1.12 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cologne goals. Columns: Werder Bremen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Werder Bremen | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.48 |
| No | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cologne or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Werder Bremen) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cologne win by 2+ | 32% | 3.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Cologne and Werder Bremen recent form
FC Cologne
2W 1D 3L
Werder Bremen
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cologne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Werder Bremen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cologne at home only, Werder Bremen away only.
Injuries & availability
FC Cologne absences
-
T. Hubers
knee injury
Werder Bremen absences
-
F. Agu
calf injury
-
J. Njinmah
thigh injury
-
J. Stage
muscle injury
-
K. Topp
knee injury
-
S. Lynen
hip injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Cologne 3 · draws 4 · Werder Bremen 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | FC Cologne | 3-1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-29 | Werder Bremen | 1-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2024-02-16 | FC Cologne | 0-1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2023-09-23 | Werder Bremen | 2-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2023-05-20 | Werder Bremen | 1-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2023-01-21 | FC Cologne | 7-1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2021-03-07 | FC Cologne | 1-1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2020-11-06 | Werder Bremen | 1-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2020-06-27 | Werder Bremen | 6-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2019-12-21 | FC Cologne | 1-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-09-11
- Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach 2026-09-12
- Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-09-12
- Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 2026-09-12
- Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-09-12
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV 2026-09-13
- SV Elversberg v Bayern Munich — match page 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- FC Cologne, previous: VfB Stuttgart v FC Cologne analysis
- FC Cologne, next: Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne prediction
- Werder Bremen, previous: Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: odds and pick
- Werder Bremen, next: Werder Bremen – Augsburg, 2026-09-19