Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 4

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim

· Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn· Referee Daniel Schlager

Full time3 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Hoffenheim to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SC Paderborn 07DrawHoffenheim

Why this pick: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SC Paderborn 07 3, Hoffenheim 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SC Paderborn 07Hoffenheim
0.58 xG per 90 2.09
0.58 npxG per 90 1.84
14.3 PPDA 8.5
5.3 Deep completions per 90 11.0
0.59 xPTS per 90 1.59

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSC Paderborn 07DrawHoffenheim
Model33%27%40%
Market22%22%56%
Published25%23%52%
Edge+11%+5%-16%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 1.65Now 1.73 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SC Paderborn 074.494.30-0.19
Draw4.444.35-0.09
Hoffenheim1.651.73+0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SC Paderborn 07 and Hoffenheim expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.73SC Paderborn 07
1.72Hoffenheim
Total expected goals
3.45
Attack rating (SC Paderborn 07 / Hoffenheim)
0.91 / 1.15
Defence rating (SC Paderborn 07 / Hoffenheim)
1.03 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 4.5% 5.6% 3.2% 2.0% 1 3.9% 12.1% 8.7% 5.0% 3.2% 2 4.6% 7.9% 6.8% 3.9% 2.5% 3 2.4% 4.1% 3.5% 2.0% 1.3% 4+ 1.3% 2.3% 1.9% 1.1% 0.7%

Rows: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Columns: Hoffenheim goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SC Paderborn 0725%4.00
Draw23%4.28
Hoffenheim52%1.94
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.57
Under 2.536%2.74
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.50
No33%3.01
Double chance1X (SC Paderborn 07 or draw)48%2.07
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Hoffenheim)75%1.33
Handicap -1Hoffenheim win by 2+22%4.57
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SC Paderborn 07 and Hoffenheim recent form

SC Paderborn 07 2W 2D 2L
Hoffenheim 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SC Paderborn 07 at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Hoffenheim away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 at home only, Hoffenheim away only.

Injuries & availability

SC Paderborn 07 absences

  • L. Eickel back injury
  • N. Awortwie-Grant knee injury
  • S. Michel muscle injury
  • T. Gayret knee injury

Hoffenheim absences

  • Bernardo achilles tendon injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

SC Paderborn 07 lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 15 N. Noll
  2. 22 M. Hansen
  3. 25 T. Scheller
  4. 21 J. ter Horst
  5. 23 R. Obermair
  6. 40 G. Vidović
  7. 5 S. Castañeda
  8. 28 L. Ulrich
  9. 17 L. Curda
  10. 30 S. Marino
  11. 18 M. Pieringer

Bench: M. Schubert, Ruben Müller, Jonah Benedict Sticker, T. Baack, R. Philippe, S. Michel, F. Götze, S. Tigges, D. Zeitler

Hoffenheim lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 O. Baumann
  2. 39 M. Rots
  3. 28 K. Machida
  4. 5 O. Kabak
  5. 34 V. Coufal
  6. 14 A. Daghim
  7. 18 W. Burger
  8. 7 L. Avdullahu
  9. 20 B. Conté
  10. 9 Max Moerstedt
  11. 10 A. Hložek

Bench: R. Hranáč, P. Wimmer, F. Asllani, V. Gendrey, Nathan De Cat, T. Lemperle, A. Hajdari, A. Kramarić, L. Philipp

SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 0 · draws 2 · Hoffenheim 2.

SC Paderborn 07DrawsHoffenheim
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2020-05-23SC Paderborn 071-1HoffenheimBundesliga
2019-11-01Hoffenheim3-0SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
2015-03-21SC Paderborn 070-0HoffenheimBundesliga
2014-10-25Hoffenheim1-0SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match