Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 4

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg

· Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt· Referee Soren Storks

Full time2 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Freiburg to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Eintracht FrankfurtDrawFreiburg

Why this pick: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Eintracht Frankfurt 10, Freiburg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Eintracht FrankfurtFreiburg
1.75 xG per 90 1.50
1.60 npxG per 90 1.50
11.4 PPDA 13.3
8.8 Deep completions per 90 6.0
1.18 xPTS per 90 1.47

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEintracht FrankfurtDrawFreiburg
Model32%23%46%
Market38%25%36%
Published37%25%39%
Edge-7%-3%+9%
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Freiburg below the model: +9.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Freiburg, 25 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 2.65Now 2.62 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Eintracht Frankfurt2.102.49+0.39
Draw3.503.75+0.25
Freiburg2.652.62-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Eintracht Frankfurt and Freiburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.09Eintracht Frankfurt
2.25Freiburg
Total expected goals
4.34
Attack rating (Eintracht Frankfurt / Freiburg)
1.44 / 1.53
Defence rating (Eintracht Frankfurt / Freiburg)
1.01 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.0% 2.3% 4.1% 3.1% 2.9% 1 1.7% 8.2% 7.7% 5.8% 5.5% 2 2.8% 6.4% 7.2% 5.4% 5.2% 3 1.8% 4.0% 4.5% 3.4% 3.2% 4+ 1.3% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 2.3%

Rows: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Columns: Freiburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 59%
Both teams to score
77%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Eintracht Frankfurt37%2.73
Draw25%4.04
Freiburg39%2.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.28
Under 2.522%4.55
Both teams to scoreYes77%1.30
No23%4.38
Double chance1X (Eintracht Frankfurt or draw)61%1.63
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Freiburg)63%1.58
Handicap -1Freiburg win by 2+28%3.57
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Eintracht Frankfurt and Freiburg recent form

Eintracht Frankfurt 2W 2D 2L
Freiburg 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Eintracht Frankfurt at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Freiburg away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Eintracht Frankfurt at home only, Freiburg away only.

Injuries & availability

Eintracht Frankfurt absences

  • F. Chaibi illness
  • J. Maluze thigh injury
  • J. Ngankam injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Eintracht Frankfurt lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 N. Atubolu
  2. 3 L. Brassier
  3. 4 R. Koch
  4. 2 Elias Baum
  5. 26 K. Kosugi
  6. 25 R. Onyedika
  7. 15 N. Aséko Nkili
  8. 20 R. Dōan
  9. 42 C. Uzun
  10. 9 J. Burkardt
  11. 11 Y. Ebnoutalib

Bench: Otávio, O. Højlund, A. Knauff, T. Chandler, M. Götze, A. Amaimouni, N. Collins, M. Pimpong, Kauã Santos

Freiburg lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 M. Backhaus
  2. 33 J. Makengo
  3. 3 P. Lienhart
  4. 28 M. Ginter
  5. 29 P. Treu
  6. 16 Y. Engelhardt
  7. 8 M. Eggestein
  8. 7 D. Scherhant
  9. 14 Y. Suzuki
  10. 19 J. Beste
  11. 31 I. Matanović

Bench: L. Höler, L. Kübler, F. Müller, Cyriaque Kalou Irié, Berkay Yilmaz, C. Günter, V. Grifo, M. Rosenfelder, K. Goto

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Eintracht Frankfurt 4 · draws 4 · Freiburg 2.

Eintracht FrankfurtDrawsFreiburg
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-01Eintracht Frankfurt2-0FreiburgBundesliga
2025-10-19Freiburg2-2Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2025-05-17Freiburg1-3Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2025-01-14Eintracht Frankfurt4-1FreiburgBundesliga
2024-02-18Freiburg3-3Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2024-01-06Eintracht Frankfurt2-5FreiburgFriendlies Clubs
2023-09-24Eintracht Frankfurt0-0FreiburgBundesliga
2023-05-27Eintracht Frankfurt2-1FreiburgBundesliga
2023-01-25Freiburg1-1Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
2022-04-10Eintracht Frankfurt1-2FreiburgBundesliga

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match