Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 4

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

· MHP Arena, Stuttgart· Referee Tobias Stieler

Full time0 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Borussia Dortmund to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VfB StuttgartDrawBorussia Dortmund

Why this pick: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (VfB Stuttgart 10, Borussia Dortmund 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

VfB StuttgartBorussia Dortmund
2.40 xG per 90 2.20
2.23 npxG per 90 2.20
12.9 PPDA 12.6
9.4 Deep completions per 90 7.4
1.39 xPTS per 90 1.84

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVfB StuttgartDrawBorussia Dortmund
Model23%21%56%
Market39%25%36%
Published35%24%41%
Edge-16%-4%+20%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.88.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Borussia Dortmund below the model: +19.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 26 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 2.50Now 2.67 +0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
VfB Stuttgart2.102.46+0.36
Draw3.703.89+0.19
Borussia Dortmund2.502.67+0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.88VfB Stuttgart
2.58Borussia Dortmund
Total expected goals
4.46
Attack rating (VfB Stuttgart / Borussia Dortmund)
1.34 / 1.45
Defence rating (VfB Stuttgart / Borussia Dortmund)
1.22 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 2.4% 4.6% 4.0% 4.8% 1 1.1% 7.3% 7.9% 6.7% 8.0% 2 2.0% 5.2% 6.7% 5.7% 6.8% 3 1.1% 2.9% 3.8% 3.2% 3.9% 4+ 0.7% 1.8% 2.3% 2.0% 2.4%

Rows: VfB Stuttgart goals. Columns: Borussia Dortmund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 62%
Both teams to score
77%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2VfB Stuttgart35%2.84
Draw24%4.20
Borussia Dortmund41%2.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.580%1.25
Under 2.520%4.97
Both teams to scoreYes77%1.30
No23%4.28
Double chance1X (VfB Stuttgart or draw)59%1.70
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Borussia Dortmund)65%1.54
Handicap -1Borussia Dortmund win by 2+37%2.70
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund recent form

VfB Stuttgart 3W 0D 3L
Borussia Dortmund 6W 0D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

VfB Stuttgart at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
4.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Borussia Dortmund away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart at home only, Borussia Dortmund away only.

Injuries & availability

VfB Stuttgart absences

  • A. Stiller knee injury
  • D. Seimen thigh injury
  • D. Zagadou muscle injury
  • J. Diehl muscle injury
  • L. Assignon shoulder injury
  • L. Jaquez muscle injury
  • M. Herwerth injury
  • N. Nartey thigh injury
  • T. Tomas muscle injury

Borussia Dortmund absences

  • E. Can knee injury
  • F. Mane muscle injury
  • G. Konstantelias knee injury
  • J. Lerma muscle injury
  • M. Kaba injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

VfB Stuttgart lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 F. Bredlow
  2. 7 M. Mittelstädt
  3. 24 J. Chabot
  4. 29 Finn Jeltsch
  5. 10 C. Führich
  6. 6 A. Stiller
  7. 21 G. Prömel
  8. 4 J. Vagnoman
  9. 26 D. Undav
  10. 11 B. El Khannouss
  11. 9 E. Demirović

Bench: A. Al Dakhil, R. Hendriks, A. Karazor, D. Pejčinović, J. Leweling, N. Nartey, M. Funk, L. Sauer, Y. Spalt

Borussia Dortmund lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 G. Kobel
  2. 4 N. Schlotterbeck
  3. 3 W. Anton
  4. 22 Kouakou Joane Gadou
  5. 24 D. Svensson
  6. 8 F. Nmecha
  7. 25 J. Veerman
  8. 26 J. Ryerson
  9. 14 M. Beier
  10. 18 E. Nwaneri
  11. 9 S. Guirassy

Bench: R. Bensebaïni, J. Bellingham, C. Chukwuemeka, K. Karetsas, M. Sabitzer, Fábio Silva, A. Meyer, S. Inacio, L. Reggiani

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 5 · draws 2 · Borussia Dortmund 3.

VfB StuttgartDrawsBorussia Dortmund
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-04VfB Stuttgart0-2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2025-11-22Borussia Dortmund3-3VfB StuttgartBundesliga
2025-02-08Borussia Dortmund1-2VfB StuttgartBundesliga
2024-09-22VfB Stuttgart5-1Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2024-04-06Borussia Dortmund0-1VfB StuttgartBundesliga
2023-12-06VfB Stuttgart2-0Borussia DortmundDFB Pokal
2023-11-11VfB Stuttgart2-1Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2023-04-15VfB Stuttgart3-3Borussia DortmundBundesliga
2022-10-22Borussia Dortmund5-0VfB StuttgartBundesliga
2022-04-08VfB Stuttgart0-2Borussia DortmundBundesliga

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match