Why this pick: Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Augsburg 10, Bayer Leverkusen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen: model vs market
| Source | Augsburg | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 22% | 42% |
| Market | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| Published | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| Edge | +10% | -1% | -9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Augsburg | 4.00 | 3.75 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.00 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.73 | 1.88 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.52
- Attack rating (Augsburg / Bayer Leverkusen)
- 1.33 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Augsburg / Bayer Leverkusen)
- 1.05 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Augsburg goals. Columns: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Augsburg | 28% | 3.57 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 20% | 5.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.26 |
| No | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Augsburg or draw) | 51% | 1.96 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Bayer Leverkusen) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+ | 26% | 3.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen recent form
Augsburg
5W 0D 1L
Bayer Leverkusen
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Augsburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Bayer Leverkusen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Augsburg at home only, Bayer Leverkusen away only.
Injuries & availability
Augsburg absences
-
A. Kade
injury
-
F. Sakar
ankle injury
-
S. Mounie
injury
-
S. Suso
muscle injury
-
T. Breithaupt
injury
Bayer Leverkusen absences
-
K. Eichhorn
illness
-
M. Culbreath
injury
-
N. Tella
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Augsburg 4 · draws 0 · Bayer Leverkusen 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-2 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-06 | Augsburg | 2-0 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-26 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-0 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-14 | Augsburg | 0-2 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-05-18 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-1 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-01-13 | Augsburg | 0-1 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2023-02-03 | Augsburg | 1-0 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2022-08-13 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1-2 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2022-01-22 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5-1 | Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2021-08-28 | Augsburg | 1-4 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-09-11
- Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach 2026-09-12
- Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-09-12
- Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 2026-09-12
- FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV 2026-09-13
- SV Elversberg v Bayern Munich — match page 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Augsburg, previous: Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg analysis
- Augsburg, next: Werder Bremen – Augsburg, 2026-09-19
- Bayer Leverkusen, previous: Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin analysis
- Bayer Leverkusen, next: Bayer Leverkusen v RasenBallsport Leipzig analysis