Why this pick: Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hamburger SV 10, FC Cologne 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne: model vs market
| Source | Hamburger SV | Draw | FC Cologne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Market | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Published | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Edge | -11% | -1% | +13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.58.
- The market prices FC Cologne below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cologne, 17 snapshots since 2026-09-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 2.54 | 2.62 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.66 | 3.60 | -0.06 |
| FC Cologne | 2.68 | 2.50 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hamburger SV and FC Cologne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.64
- Attack rating (Hamburger SV / FC Cologne)
- 0.80 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Hamburger SV / FC Cologne)
- 1.23 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hamburger SV goals. Columns: FC Cologne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hamburger SV | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| FC Cologne | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| No | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hamburger SV or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Cologne) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cologne win by 2+ | 31% | 3.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hamburger SV and FC Cologne recent form
Hamburger SV
2W 1D 3L
FC Cologne
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hamburger SV at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 5.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
FC Cologne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Hamburger SV at home only, FC Cologne away only.
Injuries & availability
Hamburger SV absences
-
A. Rossing-Lelesiit
ankle injury
-
M. Vuskovic
doping
-
S. Bornauw
muscle injury
FC Cologne absences
-
T. Hubers
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Hamburger SV lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 Daniel Heuer Fernandes
- 24 N. Capaldo
- 23 J. Torunarigha
- 17 W. Omari
- 3 D. Møller Wolfe
- 21 N. Remberg
- 6 A. Sambi Lokonga
- 7 Z. El Ouahdi
- 11 A. Grønbæk
- 20 Fábio Vieira
- 9 T. Moffi
Bench: B. Nadir, M. Adeline, S. Tangvik, Y. Poulsen, B. Jatta, Otto Emerson Stange, P. Daka, L. Lemke, S. Nandja
FC Cologne lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Schwäbe
- 14 G. Mensah
- 24 L. Lochoshvili
- 22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey
- 17 A. Castro-Montes
- 5 T. Krauß
- 6 E. Skhiri
- 10 S. El Mala
- 47 M. Moore
- 37 L. Maina
- 27 T. Dallinga
Bench: J. Schmied, B. Sosa, L. Waldschmidt, Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson, R. Ache, R. Zieler, S. Sebulonsen, J. Thielmann, M. Bülter
Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Hamburger SV 4 · draws 3 · FC Cologne 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Hamburger SV | 1-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-02 | FC Cologne | 4-1 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2025-01-18 | Hamburger SV | 1-0 | FC Cologne | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2024-08-02 | FC Cologne | 1-2 | Hamburger SV | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2023-01-07 | FC Cologne | 4-0 | Hamburger SV | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-01-18 | FC Cologne | 1-1 | Hamburger SV | DFB Pokal |
| 2019-04-15 | FC Cologne | 1-1 | Hamburger SV | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2018-11-05 | Hamburger SV | 1-0 | FC Cologne | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2018-01-20 | Hamburger SV | 0-2 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2017-08-25 | FC Cologne | 1-3 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin — team news & stats 2026-09-18
- Werder Bremen vs Augsburg 2026-09-19
- Borussia M.Gladbach v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-09-19
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Dortmund — match page 2026-09-19
- Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig — team news & stats 2026-09-20
- FC Schalke 04 vs SV Elversberg 2026-09-20
- SC Paderborn 07 v Hoffenheim — match page 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Hamburger SV, previous: RasenBallsport Leipzig v Hamburger SV analysis
- Hamburger SV, next: Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction
- FC Cologne, previous: FC Cologne – Werder Bremen, 2026-09-12
- FC Cologne, next: FC Cologne – Borussia M.Gladbach, 2026-10-11