Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 4

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05

· Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach· Referee Robert Hartmann

Full time3 – 4

BCCFC prediction was Mainz 05 to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Borussia M.GladbachDrawMainz 05

Why this pick: Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia M.Gladbach 10, Mainz 05 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Borussia M.GladbachMainz 05
1.33 xG per 90 2.43
1.33 npxG per 90 2.26
12.8 PPDA 15.0
6.5 Deep completions per 90 8.4
0.87 xPTS per 90 1.91

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBorussia M.GladbachDrawMainz 05
Model20%20%60%
Market32%25%43%
Published29%24%47%
Edge-12%-5%+17%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 1.70.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Mainz 05 below the model: +16.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mainz 05, 17 snapshots since 2026-09-11.

Opened 2.35Now 2.22 -0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Borussia M.Gladbach2.803.00+0.20
Draw3.753.80+0.05
Mainz 052.352.22-0.13

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Borussia M.Gladbach and Mainz 05 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.70Borussia M.Gladbach
2.61Mainz 05
Total expected goals
4.31
Attack rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / Mainz 05)
1.02 / 1.58
Defence rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / Mainz 05)
1.14 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 2.9% 5.4% 4.7% 5.8% 1 1.2% 7.6% 8.3% 7.2% 8.8% 2 1.9% 4.9% 6.3% 5.5% 6.7% 3 0.9% 2.5% 3.2% 2.8% 3.4% 4+ 0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 1.5% 1.8%

Rows: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Columns: Mainz 05 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 78%
Over 3.5 59%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Borussia M.Gladbach29%3.46
Draw24%4.17
Mainz 0547%2.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.28
Under 2.522%4.58
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.35
No26%3.82
Double chance1X (Borussia M.Gladbach or draw)53%1.89
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Mainz 05)71%1.41
Handicap -1Mainz 05 win by 2+41%2.46
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Borussia M.Gladbach and Mainz 05 recent form

Borussia M.Gladbach 2W 0D 4L
Mainz 05 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Borussia M.Gladbach at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Mainz 05 away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
5.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Borussia M.Gladbach at home only, Mainz 05 away only.

Injuries & availability

Borussia M.Gladbach absences

  • E. Leopold knee injury
  • J. Castrop shoulder injury
  • N. Kuhn muscle injury
  • T. Kleindienst suspended
  • Y. Konoplya knee injury
  • Z. Uno lacking match fitness

Mainz 05 absences

  • D. Kohr foot injury
  • P. Nebel muscle injury
  • R. Zentner hand injury
  • S. Widmer knee injury
  • Silas broken shinbone

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Borussia M.Gladbach lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 M. Nicolas
  2. 5 J. Leszczyński
  3. 4 K. Diks
  4. 6 K. Itakura
  5. 26 L. Ullrich
  6. 10 F. Neuhaus
  7. 16 P. Sander
  8. 29 J. Scally
  9. 38 H. Bolin
  10. 9 F. Honorat
  11. 3 I. Lidberg

Bench: F. Chiarodia, K. Stöger, D. Hashioka, S. Machino, D. Herold, R. Hack, D. Batz, M. Nguefack, W. Mohya

Mainz 05 lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 1 A. Schwolow
  2. 48 K. Potulski
  3. 3 F. Gruber
  4. 4 S. Posch
  5. 2 P. Mwene
  6. 10 N. Amiri
  7. 6 K. Sano
  8. 7 Lee Jae-Sung
  9. 19 A. Caci
  10. 23 S. Becker
  11. 9 P. Tietz

Bench: E. Martel, R. Königsdörffer, L. Maloney, S. Bell, B. Hollerbach, O. Ruoppi, D. da Costa, M. Kinzig, R. Nakuzola

Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05 head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Borussia M.Gladbach 1 · draws 6 · Mainz 05 3.

Borussia M.GladbachDrawsMainz 05
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-19Borussia M.Gladbach1-1Mainz 05Bundesliga
2025-12-05Mainz 050-1Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2025-03-07Borussia M.Gladbach1-3Mainz 05Bundesliga
2024-10-25Mainz 051-1Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2024-03-02Mainz 051-1Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2023-10-06Borussia M.Gladbach2-2Mainz 05Bundesliga
2023-02-24Mainz 054-0Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2022-09-04Borussia M.Gladbach0-1Mainz 05Bundesliga
2022-04-03Borussia M.Gladbach1-1Mainz 05Bundesliga
2021-11-05Mainz 051-1Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match