Why this pick: Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hoffenheim 10, VfB Stuttgart 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart: model vs market
| Source | Hoffenheim | Draw | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 22% | 28% |
| Market | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| Published | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Edge | +9% | -1% | -8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.80.
- The market prices Hoffenheim below the model: +8.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim, 27 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 2.00 | 2.35 | +0.35 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 4.10 | +0.50 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 2.60 | 2.67 | +0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.42
- Attack rating (Hoffenheim / VfB Stuttgart)
- 1.24 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Hoffenheim / VfB Stuttgart)
- 0.94 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hoffenheim goals. Columns: VfB Stuttgart goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hoffenheim or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or VfB Stuttgart) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win by 2+ | 31% | 3.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart recent form
Hoffenheim
2W 1D 3L
VfB Stuttgart
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hoffenheim at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
VfB Stuttgart away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 5.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Hoffenheim at home only, VfB Stuttgart away only.
Injuries & availability
Hoffenheim absences
-
A. Prass
muscle injury
-
K. Machida
lacking match fitness
VfB Stuttgart absences
-
D. Seimen
thigh injury
-
D. Zagadou
muscle injury
-
J. Diehl
muscle injury
-
L. Assignon
shoulder injury
-
L. Jaquez
muscle injury
-
N. Nartey
thigh injury
-
T. Tomas
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Hoffenheim 2 · draws 6 · VfB Stuttgart 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Hoffenheim | 3-3 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-20 | VfB Stuttgart | 0-0 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2025-02-23 | Hoffenheim | 1-1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2024-10-06 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-16 | Hoffenheim | 0-3 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-28 | VfB Stuttgart | 2-3 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2023-05-27 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2023-01-24 | Hoffenheim | 2-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2022-02-25 | Hoffenheim | 2-1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2021-10-02 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-09-11
- Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach 2026-09-12
- Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-09-12
- Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-09-12
- FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV 2026-09-13
- SV Elversberg v Bayern Munich — match page 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Hoffenheim, previous: Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund, 2026-09-05
- Hoffenheim, next: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim prediction
- VfB Stuttgart, previous: VfB Stuttgart v FC Cologne analysis
- VfB Stuttgart, next: VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund, 2026-09-19