Why this pick: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia Dortmund 10, SC Paderborn 07 2). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07: model vs market
| Source | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Market | 78% | 14% | 9% |
| Published | 72% | 16% | 11% |
| Edge | -21% | +10% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.20 | 1.22 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 6.50 | 7.00 | +0.50 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 11.00 | 11.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (Borussia Dortmund / SC Paderborn 07)
- 1.41 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Borussia Dortmund / SC Paderborn 07)
- 0.83 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Borussia Dortmund | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.21 | |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 11% | 8.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Borussia Dortmund or draw) | 89% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or SC Paderborn 07) | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win by 2+ | 36% | 2.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn 07 recent form
Borussia Dortmund
6W 0D 0L
SC Paderborn 07
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Borussia Dortmund at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
SC Paderborn 07 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Borussia Dortmund at home only, SC Paderborn 07 away only.
Injuries & availability
Borussia Dortmund absences
-
E. Can
knee injury
-
F. Mane
muscle injury
-
G. Konstantelias
knee injury
-
J. Lerma
muscle injury
-
K. Karetsas
health problems
-
M. Kaba
injury
-
S. Inacio
suspended
SC Paderborn 07 absences
-
L. Eickel
back injury
-
N. Awortwie-Grant
knee injury
-
S. Klaas
muscle injury
-
S. Michel
muscle injury
-
T. Gayret
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Borussia Dortmund 4 · draws 3 · SC Paderborn 07 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-02 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-2 | SC Paderborn 07 | DFB Pokal |
| 2020-08-28 | Borussia Dortmund | 1-1 | SC Paderborn 07 | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2020-05-31 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1-6 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2019-11-22 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-3 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 2015-10-28 | Borussia Dortmund | 7-1 | SC Paderborn 07 | DFB Pokal |
| 2015-04-18 | Borussia Dortmund | 3-0 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 2014-11-22 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2-2 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-09-11
- Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach 2026-09-12
- Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-09-12
- Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 2026-09-12
- Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-09-12
- FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV 2026-09-13
- SV Elversberg v Bayern Munich — match page 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Borussia Dortmund, previous: Hoffenheim – Borussia Dortmund, 2026-09-05
- Borussia Dortmund, next: VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Dortmund, 2026-09-19
- SC Paderborn 07, previous: SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg: odds and pick
- SC Paderborn 07, next: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hoffenheim prediction