Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 3

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

· An der Alten Försterei, Berlin· Referee Timo Gerach

Full time1 – 3

BCCFC prediction was FC Schalke 04 to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Union BerlinDrawFC Schalke 04

Why this pick: Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Union Berlin 10, FC Schalke 04 2). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Union BerlinFC Schalke 04
1.47 xG per 90 1.04
1.47 npxG per 90 1.04
15.1 PPDA 36.2
5.3 Deep completions per 90 3.5
1.28 xPTS per 90 0.15

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceUnion BerlinDrawFC Schalke 04
Model28%27%45%
Market39%27%34%
Published36%27%37%
Edge-12%0%+11%
  • The market prices FC Schalke 04 below the model: +11.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Schalke 04, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 3.25Now 2.84 -0.41
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Union Berlin1.822.45+0.63
Draw3.553.61+0.06
FC Schalke 043.252.84-0.41

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.54Union Berlin
1.80FC Schalke 04
Total expected goals
3.34
Attack rating (Union Berlin / FC Schalke 04)
1.01 / 0.99
Defence rating (Union Berlin / FC Schalke 04)
1.25 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 5.4% 6.7% 4.0% 2.7% 1 3.7% 12.4% 9.3% 5.6% 3.8% 2 4.0% 7.1% 6.4% 3.9% 2.6% 3 1.8% 3.3% 3.0% 1.8% 1.2% 4+ 0.9% 1.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6%

Rows: Union Berlin goals. Columns: FC Schalke 04 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Union Berlin36%2.75
Draw27%3.73
FC Schalke 0437%2.72
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.62
Under 2.538%2.61
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.55
No35%2.82
Double chance1X (Union Berlin or draw)63%1.58
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or FC Schalke 04)64%1.57
Handicap -1FC Schalke 04 win by 2+26%3.86
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Union Berlin and FC Schalke 04 recent form

Union Berlin 3W 2D 1L
FC Schalke 04 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Union Berlin at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

FC Schalke 04 away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Union Berlin at home only, FC Schalke 04 away only.

Injuries & availability

Union Berlin absences

  • A. Ilic illness
  • A. Markgraf knee injury
  • K. Imeri thigh injury
  • M. Friedrich injury
  • O. Burke achilles tendon injury
  • S. Nsoki muscle injury

FC Schalke 04 absences

  • R. Schallenberg suspended
  • T. Kalas lacking match fitness

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Union Berlin 1 · draws 4 · FC Schalke 04 1.

Union BerlinDrawsFC Schalke 04
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-02-19Union Berlin0-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2022-08-27FC Schalke 041-6Union BerlinBundesliga
2021-02-13Union Berlin0-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2020-10-18FC Schalke 041-1Union BerlinBundesliga
2020-06-07Union Berlin1-1FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2019-11-29FC Schalke 042-1Union BerlinBundesliga

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Before and after this match