Why this pick: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (RasenBallsport Leipzig 10, Hamburger SV 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV: model vs market
| Source | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Draw | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 19% | 15% |
| Market | 72% | 17% | 12% |
| Published | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.08 vs 1.32.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV odds movement
Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1.33 | 1.33 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.75 | +0.75 |
| Hamburger SV | 7.50 | 8.00 | +0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Hamburger SV expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.41
- Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Hamburger SV)
- 1.40 / 0.84
- Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Hamburger SV)
- 1.08 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: Hamburger SV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 70% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.85 | |
| Hamburger SV | 13% | 7.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 78% | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 22% | 4.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw) | 87% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or Hamburger SV) | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+ | 48% | 2.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Hamburger SV recent form
RasenBallsport Leipzig
3W 0D 3L
Hamburger SV
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
RasenBallsport Leipzig at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Hamburger SV away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: RasenBallsport Leipzig at home only, Hamburger SV away only.
Injuries & availability
RasenBallsport Leipzig absences
-
C. Baumgartner
thigh injury
-
R. Reitz
muscle injury
Hamburger SV absences
-
A. Rossing-Lelesiit
ankle injury
-
K. Amoako
illness
-
S. Bornauw
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: RasenBallsport Leipzig 6 · draws 1 · Hamburger SV 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Hamburger SV | 1-2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-18 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2-1 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2022-10-18 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 4-0 | Hamburger SV | DFB Pokal |
| 2019-04-23 | Hamburger SV | 1-3 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | DFB Pokal |
| 2018-01-27 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1-1 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2017-09-08 | Hamburger SV | 0-2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2017-02-11 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0-3 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2016-09-17 | Hamburger SV | 0-4 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-09-11
- Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach 2026-09-12
- Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-09-12
- Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 2026-09-12
- Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-09-12
- FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- SV Elversberg v Bayern Munich — match page 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- RasenBallsport Leipzig, previous: Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: odds and pick
- RasenBallsport Leipzig, next: Bayer Leverkusen v RasenBallsport Leipzig analysis
- Hamburger SV, previous: Hamburger SV – Mainz 05, 2026-09-06
- Hamburger SV, next: Hamburger SV vs FC Cologne prediction