Why this pick: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bayer Leverkusen 10, Union Berlin 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin: model vs market
| Source | Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Published | 64% | 20% | 17% |
| Edge | -8% | +1% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.99 vs 1.69.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bayer Leverkusen, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.41 | 1.46 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.92 | +0.62 |
| Union Berlin | 4.60 | 6.39 | +1.79 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.68
- Attack rating (Bayer Leverkusen / Union Berlin)
- 1.40 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Bayer Leverkusen / Union Berlin)
- 1.05 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Columns: Union Berlin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 77%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Union Berlin | 17% | 5.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 81% | 1.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 19% | 5.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 77% | 1.30 |
| No | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bayer Leverkusen or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Union Berlin) | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bayer Leverkusen win by 2+ | 39% | 2.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin recent form
Bayer Leverkusen
3W 1D 2L
Union Berlin
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Bayer Leverkusen absences
-
E. Ben Seghir
thigh injury
-
G. Doue
injury
-
K. Eichhorn
illness
-
M. Culbreath
injury
-
M. Terrier
muscle injury
-
N. Tella
injury
Union Berlin absences
-
A. Ilic
illness
-
A. Markgraf
knee injury
-
F. Ronnow
muscle injury
-
M. Friedrich
inactive
-
O. Burke
achilles tendon injury
-
S. Nsoki
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bayer Leverkusen 5 · draws 4 · Union Berlin 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Union Berlin | 1-0 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-04 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-0 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-12 | Bayer Leverkusen | 0-0 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2024-11-30 | Union Berlin | 1-2 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-04-06 | Union Berlin | 0-1 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2023-11-12 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4-0 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2023-04-29 | Union Berlin | 0-0 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
| 2022-11-06 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5-0 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2022-01-08 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-2 | Union Berlin | Bundesliga |
| 2021-08-14 | Union Berlin | 1-1 | Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart vs FC Cologne — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig 2026-09-05
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SV Elversberg — match page 2026-09-05
- Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- SC Paderborn 07 v Freiburg — match page 2026-09-05
- FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 2026-09-06
- Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg — match page 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Bayer Leverkusen, next: Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
- Union Berlin, next: Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04: odds and pick