Why this pick: Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Mainz 05 10, Eintracht Frankfurt 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt: model vs market
| Source | Mainz 05 | Draw | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| Market | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Published | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Edge | +1% | -3% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.90 vs 1.85.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mainz 05, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 2.38 | 1.83 | -0.55 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 4.10 | +0.50 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.62 | 3.85 | +1.23 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.75
- Attack rating (Mainz 05 / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 1.62 / 1.47
- Defence rating (Mainz 05 / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 0.86 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mainz 05 goals. Columns: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mainz 05 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.26 |
| No | 21% | 4.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mainz 05 or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Eintracht Frankfurt) | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mainz 05 win by 2+ | 35% | 2.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt recent form
Mainz 05
4W 1D 1L
Eintracht Frankfurt
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mainz 05 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
Eintracht Frankfurt away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Mainz 05 at home only, Eintracht Frankfurt away only.
Injuries & availability
Mainz 05 absences
-
D. Kohr
foot injury
-
E. Martel
knee injury
-
P. Nebel
muscle injury
-
S. Widmer
knee injury
-
Silas
broken shinbone
Eintracht Frankfurt absences
-
A. Knauff
muscle injury
-
F. Chaibi
illness
-
J. Ngankam
injury
-
M. Pimpong
illness
-
N. Collins
back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Mainz 05 2 · draws 4 · Eintracht Frankfurt 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Mainz 05 | 2-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-09 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2025-05-04 | Mainz 05 | 1-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-21 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-3 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2024-01-26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2023-08-27 | Mainz 05 | 1-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2023-05-13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2022-11-13 | Mainz 05 | 1-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2022-05-14 | Mainz 05 | 2-2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2022-01-27 | Mainz 05 | 0-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-09-11
- Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach 2026-09-12
- Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 2026-09-12
- Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-09-12
- FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV 2026-09-13
- SV Elversberg v Bayern Munich — match page 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Mainz 05, previous: Hamburger SV – Mainz 05, 2026-09-06
- Mainz 05, next: Borussia M.Gladbach v Mainz 05 analysis
- Eintracht Frankfurt, previous: Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg analysis
- Eintracht Frankfurt, next: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg: odds and pick