Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 2

FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich

· Veltins Arena, Gelsenkirchen· Referee Robert Schröder, Germany

Full time0 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Bayern Munich to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC Schalke 04DrawBayern Munich

Why this pick: FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Schalke 04 1, Bayern Munich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

FC Schalke 04Bayern Munich
1.84 xG per 90 3.41
1.84 npxG per 90 3.33
17.9 PPDA 8.4
7.0 Deep completions per 90 18.0
0.09 xPTS per 90 2.03

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC Schalke 04DrawBayern Munich
Model23%22%55%
Market6%10%84%
Published11%13%76%
Edge+17%+12%-29%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.75.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 27 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 1.23Now 1.15 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Schalke 046.5014.80+8.30
Draw5.309.60+4.30
Bayern Munich1.231.15-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Schalke 04 and Bayern Munich expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75FC Schalke 04
2.40Bayern Munich
Total expected goals
4.16
Attack rating (FC Schalke 04 / Bayern Munich)
1.10 / 1.81
Defence rating (FC Schalke 04 / Bayern Munich)
0.92 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 3.1% 5.4% 4.3% 4.6% 1 1.5% 8.5% 8.5% 6.8% 7.2% 2 2.3% 5.6% 6.7% 5.4% 5.7% 3 1.2% 2.9% 3.5% 2.8% 3.0% 4+ 0.7% 1.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.7%

Rows: FC Schalke 04 goals. Columns: Bayern Munich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
74%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Schalke 0411%9.35
Draw13%7.68
Bayern Munich76%1.31
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.15
Both teams to scoreYes74%1.36
No26%3.79
Double chance1X (FC Schalke 04 or draw)24%4.22
12 (either side)87%1.15
X2 (draw or Bayern Munich)89%1.12
Handicap -1Bayern Munich win by 2+36%2.81
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Schalke 04 and Bayern Munich recent form

FC Schalke 04 4W 0D 2L
Bayern Munich 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

FC Schalke 04 absences

  • A. Gantenbein ankle injury
  • B. Lasme calf injury
  • E. Hojlund heel injury
  • K. Karaman hip injury
  • R. Schallenberg suspended
  • T. Kalas lacking match fitness

Bayern Munich absences

  • J. Musiala health problems
  • S. Gnabry muscle injury
  • T. Buchmann knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: FC Schalke 04 0 · draws 0 · Bayern Munich 10.

FC Schalke 04DrawsBayern Munich
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-05-13Bayern Munich6-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2022-11-12FC Schalke 040-2Bayern MunichBundesliga
2021-01-24FC Schalke 040-4Bayern MunichBundesliga
2020-09-18Bayern Munich8-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2020-03-03FC Schalke 040-1Bayern MunichDFB Pokal
2020-01-25Bayern Munich5-0FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2019-08-24FC Schalke 040-3Bayern MunichBundesliga
2019-02-09Bayern Munich3-1FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
2018-09-22FC Schalke 040-2Bayern MunichBundesliga
2018-02-10Bayern Munich2-1FC Schalke 04Bundesliga

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match