Why this pick: Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Freiburg 10, Borussia M.Gladbach 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach: model vs market
| Source | Freiburg | Draw | Borussia M.Gladbach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.86 vs 1.40.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Freiburg below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Freiburg, 17 snapshots since 2026-09-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 1.85 | 1.70 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 4.20 | +0.35 |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 3.90 | 4.65 | +0.75 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Freiburg and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.25
- Attack rating (Freiburg / Borussia M.Gladbach)
- 1.41 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Freiburg / Borussia M.Gladbach)
- 0.86 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.49 | |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 20% | 5.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Freiburg or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Borussia M.Gladbach) | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win by 2+ | 42% | 2.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Freiburg and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form
Freiburg
5W 0D 1L
Borussia M.Gladbach
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Freiburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Borussia M.Gladbach away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Freiburg at home only, Borussia M.Gladbach away only.
Injuries & availability
Borussia M.Gladbach absences
-
D. Hashioka
neck injury
-
E. Leopold
knee injury
-
J. Castrop
shoulder injury
-
N. Kuhn
muscle injury
-
Y. Konoplya
knee injury
-
Z. Uno
lacking match fitness
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Freiburg 5 · draws 5 · Borussia M.Gladbach 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Freiburg | 2-1 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-05 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 0-0 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-12 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 1-2 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-11-30 | Freiburg | 3-1 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-30 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 0-3 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2023-11-04 | Freiburg | 3-3 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2023-03-04 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 0-0 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2022-09-11 | Freiburg | 0-0 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2022-04-23 | Freiburg | 3-3 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2021-12-05 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 0-6 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Union Berlin vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-09-11
- Mainz 05 v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-09-12
- Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart 2026-09-12
- Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-09-12
- FC Cologne vs Werder Bremen — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Hamburger SV 2026-09-13
- SV Elversberg v Bayern Munich — match page 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Freiburg, previous: SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg: odds and pick
- Freiburg, next: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Freiburg: odds and pick
- Borussia M.Gladbach, previous: Borussia M.Gladbach vs SV Elversberg prediction
- Borussia M.Gladbach, next: Borussia M.Gladbach v Mainz 05 analysis