SV Elversberg VS Bayern Munich Football Prediction 13/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: SV Elversberg vs Bayern Munich

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SV Elversberg 2, Bayern Munich 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

SV ElversbergBayern Munich

2.22 xG per 90 3.04

2.22 npxG per 90 2.95

12.7 PPDA 8.0

6.0 Deep completions per 90 18.8

1.05 xPTS per 90 2.02

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

SV Elversberg vs Bayern Munich: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	SV Elversberg	Draw	Bayern Munich
Model	25%	22%	53%
Market	6%	11%	83%
Published	11%	13%	76%
Edge	+19%	+11%	-30%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.93.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SV Elversberg vs Bayern Munich odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bayern Munich, 29 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.11Now 1.15 +0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
SV Elversberg	10.00	15.00	+5.00
Draw	7.00	9.00	+2.00
Bayern Munich	1.11	1.15	+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SV Elversberg and Bayern Munich expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93SV Elversberg

2.46Bayern Munich

Total expected goals: 4.38
Attack rating (SV Elversberg / Bayern Munich): 1.46 / 1.74
Defence rating (SV Elversberg / Bayern Munich): 0.97 / 0.72

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SV Elversberg vs Bayern Munich score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 2.4% 4.6% 3.7% 4.1% 1 1.3% 7.7% 7.9% 6.5% 7.1% 2 2.3% 5.6% 6.9% 5.6% 6.2% 3 1.3% 3.2% 4.0% 3.2% 3.6% 4+ 0.8% 2.1% 2.5% 2.1% 2.3%

Rows: SV Elversberg goals. Columns: Bayern Munich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SV Elversberg vs Bayern Munich goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 79%

Over 3.5 60%

Both teams to score: 77%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SV Elversberg vs Bayern Munich

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	SV Elversberg	11%	8.98
	Draw	13%	7.49
	Bayern Munich	76%	1.32
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	79%	1.27
	Under 2.5	21%	4.75
Both teams to score	Yes	77%	1.31
	No	23%	4.27
Double chance	1X (SV Elversberg or draw)	24%	4.08
	12 (either side)	87%	1.15
	X2 (draw or Bayern Munich)	89%	1.13
Handicap -1	Bayern Munich win by 2+	34%	2.93
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—