Borussia M.Gladbach VS SV Elversberg Football Prediction 05/09/2026 | 1X2, Over/Under 2.5, Lineups, Stats & Standings

Why this pick: Borussia M.Gladbach vs SV Elversberg

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia M.Gladbach 10, SV Elversberg 1). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Borussia M.GladbachSV Elversberg

1.23 xG per 90 1.40

1.23 npxG per 90 1.40

14.4 PPDA 15.2

6.3 Deep completions per 90 7.0

1.02 xPTS per 90 0.61

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs SV Elversberg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Borussia M.Gladbach	Draw	SV Elversberg
Model	25%	25%	50%
Market	51%	24%	25%
Published	45%	24%	31%
Edge	-26%	0%	+26%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs SV Elversberg odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Borussia M.Gladbach, 12 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.62Now 1.88 +0.25

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Borussia M.Gladbach	1.62	1.88	+0.25
Draw	4.10	3.92	-0.17
SV Elversberg	5.00	3.90	-1.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Borussia M.Gladbach and SV Elversberg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.64Borussia M.Gladbach

2.09SV Elversberg

Total expected goals: 3.73
Attack rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / SV Elversberg): 1.03 / 1.37
Defence rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / SV Elversberg): 1.06 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs SV Elversberg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 4.2% 6.2% 4.3% 3.7% 1 2.4% 10.5% 9.1% 6.4% 5.4% 2 3.1% 6.4% 6.7% 4.7% 4.0% 3 1.5% 3.1% 3.3% 2.3% 2.0% 4+ 0.8% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.0%

Rows: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Columns: SV Elversberg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs SV Elversberg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 69%

Over 3.5 48%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Borussia M.Gladbach vs SV Elversberg

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Borussia M.Gladbach	45%	2.24
	Draw	24%	4.09
	SV Elversberg	31%	3.23
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	69%	1.45
	Under 2.5	31%	3.24
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.44
	No	31%	3.26
Double chance	1X (Borussia M.Gladbach or draw)	69%	1.45
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or SV Elversberg)	55%	1.81
Handicap -1	Borussia M.Gladbach win by 2+	12%	8.24
	Push (exactly one goal)	13%	—