Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV preview
Hoffenheim has a 64% probability of winning against Hamburger SV, who have a 15% chance. The expected goals for Hoffenheim stand at 2.53, while Hamburger SV's is 1.26. This suggests a potential scoreline of 2-1, which is the most likely outcome at 10%. However, these figures do not guarantee a specific result.
Both teams to score has a probability of 66%, and there is a 68% likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored. Hoffenheim's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Hamburger SV has also managed 2 wins in the same period. The head-to-head record indicates Hoffenheim's slight edge with 5 wins out of the last 10 encounters. The largest source of doubt remains the inconsistency in both teams' recent performances.
Why this pick: Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hoffenheim 10, Hamburger SV 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV: model vs market
| Source | Hoffenheim | Draw | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Market | 66% | 19% | 14% |
| Published | 64% | 20% | 15% |
| Edge | -8% | +4% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.26.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 1.35 | 1.43 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 5.23 | 4.90 | -0.33 |
| Hamburger SV | 8.38 | 6.65 | -1.73 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.78
- Attack rating (Hoffenheim / Hamburger SV)
- 1.12 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Hoffenheim / Hamburger SV)
- 1.02 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hoffenheim goals. Columns: Hamburger SV goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 64% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.94 | |
| Hamburger SV | 15% | 6.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hoffenheim or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Hamburger SV) | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV recent form
Hoffenheim
2W 0D 4L
Hamburger SV
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hoffenheim at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Hamburger SV away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Hoffenheim at home only, Hamburger SV away only.
Injuries & availability
Hoffenheim
- A. Hajdari muscle injury
-
Bernardo
achilles tendon injury
Hamburger SV
-
A. Gronbaek
thigh injury
-
A. Rossing-Lelesiit
ankle injury
-
M. Vuskovic
doping
- P. Daka thigh injury
- Z. El Ouahdi illness
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Hoffenheim 5 · draws 2 · Hamburger SV 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Hamburger SV | 1-2 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-13 | Hoffenheim | 4-1 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2018-04-14 | Hoffenheim | 2-0 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2017-11-26 | Hamburger SV | 3-0 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2017-04-08 | Hamburger SV | 2-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2016-11-20 | Hoffenheim | 2-2 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2016-03-19 | Hamburger SV | 1-3 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2015-10-23 | Hoffenheim | 0-1 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2015-03-14 | Hoffenheim | 3-0 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2014-10-19 | Hamburger SV | 1-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
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