Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 2

Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

· Weserstadion, Bremen· Referee Benjamin Brand, Germany

Full time3 – 1

BCCFC prediction was RasenBallsport Leipzig to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Werder BremenDrawRasenBallsport Leipzig

Why this pick: Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Werder Bremen 10, RasenBallsport Leipzig 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Werder BremenRasenBallsport Leipzig
0.94 xG per 90 2.39
0.86 npxG per 90 2.39
15.7 PPDA 12.1
5.6 Deep completions per 90 10.2
0.69 xPTS per 90 1.82

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWerder BremenDrawRasenBallsport Leipzig
Model18%21%61%
Market23%23%54%
Published22%22%56%
Edge-5%-2%+7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 1.53.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices RasenBallsport Leipzig below the model: +7.2 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig odds movement

Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 12 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 2.04Now 1.75 -0.29
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Werder Bremen3.204.10+0.90
Draw3.804.22+0.42
RasenBallsport Leipzig2.041.75-0.29

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Werder Bremen and RasenBallsport Leipzig expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Werder Bremen
2.55RasenBallsport Leipzig
Total expected goals
4.07
Attack rating (Werder Bremen / RasenBallsport Leipzig)
0.87 / 1.59
Defence rating (Werder Bremen / RasenBallsport Leipzig)
1.11 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 3.7% 6.4% 5.4% 6.4% 1 1.3% 8.3% 8.8% 7.5% 8.8% 2 1.9% 4.8% 6.1% 5.2% 6.0% 3 0.9% 2.2% 2.8% 2.4% 2.8% 4+ 0.4% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3%

Rows: Werder Bremen goals. Columns: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
70%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Werder Bremen22%4.57
Draw22%4.53
RasenBallsport Leipzig56%1.78
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.00
Both teams to scoreYes70%1.42
No30%3.36
Double chance1X (Werder Bremen or draw)44%2.27
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or RasenBallsport Leipzig)78%1.28
Handicap -1RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+42%2.38
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Werder Bremen and RasenBallsport Leipzig recent form

Werder Bremen 1W 1D 4L
RasenBallsport Leipzig 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Werder Bremen absences

  • F. Agu calf injury
  • J. Njinmah thigh injury
  • J. Stage muscle injury
  • K. Topp knee injury
  • M. Weiser knee injury

RasenBallsport Leipzig absences

  • B. Gruda ankle injury
  • C. Baumgartner thigh injury
  • R. Reitz muscle injury
  • Romulo Cardoso knee injury
  • V. Gebel knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Werder Bremen 0 · draws 4 · RasenBallsport Leipzig 6.

Werder BremenDrawsRasenBallsport Leipzig
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-04Werder Bremen1-2RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2025-11-23RasenBallsport Leipzig2-0Werder BremenBundesliga
2025-05-10Werder Bremen0-0RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2025-01-12RasenBallsport Leipzig4-2Werder BremenBundesliga
2024-05-11RasenBallsport Leipzig1-1Werder BremenBundesliga
2023-12-19Werder Bremen1-1RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2023-07-28RasenBallsport Leipzig0-0Werder BremenFriendlies Clubs
2023-05-14RasenBallsport Leipzig2-1Werder BremenBundesliga
2022-11-12Werder Bremen1-2RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesliga
2021-04-30Werder Bremen1-2RasenBallsport LeipzigDFB Pokal

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