Why this pick: Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hamburger SV 10, Mainz 05 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05: model vs market
| Source | Hamburger SV | Draw | Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17% | 20% | 62% |
| Market | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Published | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Edge | -16% | -7% | +23% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.57 vs 1.49.
- The market prices Mainz 05 below the model: +23.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mainz 05, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV | 2.42 | 2.93 | +0.51 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.43 | +0.01 |
| Mainz 05 | 2.53 | 2.44 | -0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hamburger SV and Mainz 05 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.06
- Attack rating (Hamburger SV / Mainz 05)
- 0.90 / 1.56
- Defence rating (Hamburger SV / Mainz 05)
- 1.14 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hamburger SV goals. Columns: Mainz 05 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hamburger SV | 29% | 3.47 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Mainz 05 | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hamburger SV or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Mainz 05) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mainz 05 win by 2+ | 43% | 2.32 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hamburger SV and Mainz 05 recent form
Hamburger SV
3W 1D 2L
Mainz 05
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Hamburger SV absences
-
A. Rossing-Lelesiit
ankle injury
-
M. Muheim
muscle injury
-
W. Omari
personal reasons
Mainz 05 absences
-
B. Hollerbach
lacking match fitness
-
D. Kohr
foot injury
-
E. Martel
knee injury
-
P. Nebel
muscle injury
-
Silas
broken shinbone
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Hamburger SV 3 · draws 4 · Mainz 05 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Mainz 05 | 1-1 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-05 | Hamburger SV | 4-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2018-03-03 | Hamburger SV | 0-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2017-10-14 | Mainz 05 | 3-2 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2017-05-07 | Hamburger SV | 0-0 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2016-12-17 | Mainz 05 | 3-1 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2016-04-30 | Mainz 05 | 0-0 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2015-12-05 | Hamburger SV | 1-3 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| 2015-05-03 | Mainz 05 | 1-2 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga |
| 2014-12-07 | Hamburger SV | 2-1 | Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart vs FC Cologne — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig 2026-09-05
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SV Elversberg — match page 2026-09-05
- Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin 2026-09-05
- SC Paderborn 07 v Freiburg — match page 2026-09-05
- FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg — match page 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Hamburger SV, next: RasenBallsport Leipzig v Hamburger SV analysis
- Mainz 05, next: Mainz 05 – Eintracht Frankfurt, 2026-09-12