Why this pick: Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Hoffenheim 10, Borussia Dortmund 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund: model vs market
| Source | Hoffenheim | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Published | 35% | 25% | 39% |
| Edge | -3% | +2% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Borussia Dortmund, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 2.60 | 2.65 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.86 | +0.06 |
| Borussia Dortmund | 2.45 | 2.46 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.57
- Attack rating (Hoffenheim / Borussia Dortmund)
- 1.24 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Hoffenheim / Borussia Dortmund)
- 0.90 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hoffenheim goals. Columns: Borussia Dortmund goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 35% | 2.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.96 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hoffenheim or draw) | 61% | 1.65 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Borussia Dortmund) | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Borussia Dortmund win by 2+ | 23% | 4.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Hoffenheim and Borussia Dortmund recent form
Hoffenheim
3W 1D 2L
Borussia Dortmund
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Hoffenheim absences
-
A. Prass
muscle injury
-
F. Asllani
injury
Borussia Dortmund absences
-
E. Can
knee injury
-
G. Konstantelias
knee injury
-
J. Lerma
muscle injury
-
M. Kaba
injury
-
N. Schlotterbeck
ankle injury
-
R. Bensebaini
ribs injury
-
S. Inacio
suspended
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Hoffenheim 2 · draws 1 · Borussia Dortmund 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Hoffenheim | 2-1 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-07 | Borussia Dortmund | 2-0 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-26 | Hoffenheim | 2-3 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-15 | Borussia Dortmund | 1-1 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2024-02-25 | Borussia Dortmund | 2-3 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2023-11-01 | Borussia Dortmund | 1-0 | Hoffenheim | DFB Pokal |
| 2023-09-29 | Hoffenheim | 1-3 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2023-02-25 | Hoffenheim | 0-1 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 2022-09-02 | Borussia Dortmund | 1-0 | Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| 2022-01-22 | Hoffenheim | 2-3 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- VfB Stuttgart vs FC Cologne — team news & stats 2026-09-04
- Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig 2026-09-05
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SV Elversberg — match page 2026-09-05
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin 2026-09-05
- SC Paderborn 07 v Freiburg — match page 2026-09-05
- FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 2026-09-06
- Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg — match page 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- Hoffenheim, next: Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart: odds and pick
- Borussia Dortmund, next: Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07 analysis