Why this pick: VfB Stuttgart vs FC Cologne
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (VfB Stuttgart 10, FC Cologne 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Cologne: model vs market
| Source | VfB Stuttgart | Draw | FC Cologne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Market | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Published | 58% | 20% | 21% |
| Edge | -26% | +5% | +21% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Cologne odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VfB Stuttgart, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.41 | 1.47 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 4.90 | 5.00 | +0.10 |
| FC Cologne | 6.09 | 6.00 | -0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
VfB Stuttgart and FC Cologne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.07
- Attack rating (VfB Stuttgart / FC Cologne)
- 1.16 / 1.11
- Defence rating (VfB Stuttgart / FC Cologne)
- 1.18 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Cologne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: VfB Stuttgart goals. Columns: FC Cologne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Cologne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for VfB Stuttgart vs FC Cologne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | 58% | 1.71 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| FC Cologne | 21% | 4.73 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (VfB Stuttgart or draw) | 79% | 1.27 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Cologne) | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | VfB Stuttgart win by 2+ | 22% | 4.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
VfB Stuttgart and FC Cologne recent form
VfB Stuttgart
2W 2D 2L
FC Cologne
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
VfB Stuttgart absences
-
D. Seimen
thigh injury
-
D. Zagadou
muscle injury
-
J. Arevalo
back injury
-
J. Diehl
muscle injury
-
N. Nartey
injury
-
T. Tomas
muscle injury
FC Cologne absences
-
S. El Mala
illness
-
T. Dallinga
illness
-
T. Hubers
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
VfB Stuttgart vs FC Cologne head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 6 · draws 2 · FC Cologne 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2025-09-28 | FC Cologne | 1-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2024-02-24 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2023-09-30 | FC Cologne | 0-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2023-02-18 | VfB Stuttgart | 3-0 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2022-11-19 | FC Cologne | 2-4 | VfB Stuttgart | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-08-28 | FC Cologne | 0-0 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2022-05-14 | VfB Stuttgart | 2-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2021-12-19 | FC Cologne | 1-0 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2021-10-27 | VfB Stuttgart | 0-2 | FC Cologne | DFB Pokal |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Werder Bremen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig 2026-09-05
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SV Elversberg — match page 2026-09-05
- Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin 2026-09-05
- SC Paderborn 07 v Freiburg — match page 2026-09-05
- FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 2026-09-06
- Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg — match page 2026-09-06
Before and after this match
- VfB Stuttgart, next: Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart: odds and pick
- FC Cologne, next: FC Cologne – Werder Bremen, 2026-09-12