FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach preview
FC Cologne has a 49% probability of winning, while Borussia M.Gladbach stands at 28%. The expected goals for FC Cologne is 2.71, compared to 1.73 for Borussia M.Gladbach. This suggests a potential advantage for FC Cologne, but it does not confirm the outcome.
Both teams to score is predicted at 76%, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% probability. Recent form shows FC Cologne with a record of L-D-L-W-W-L, while Borussia M.Gladbach has L-L-L-L-W-W. The head-to-head record in the last 4 matches shows 1 win for each team and 2 draws, adding uncertainty to the fixture.
Why this pick: FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Cologne 10, Borussia M.Gladbach 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach: model vs market
| Source | FC Cologne | Draw | Borussia M.Gladbach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| Market | 46% | 24% | 29% |
| Published | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Edge | +6% | -3% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 1.73.
- The market prices FC Cologne below the model: +5.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Cologne, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne | 1.85 | 2.04 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 3.96 | 3.90 | -0.06 |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 3.77 | 3.25 | -0.52 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.45
- Attack rating (FC Cologne / Borussia M.Gladbach)
- 1.18 / 1.09
- Defence rating (FC Cologne / Borussia M.Gladbach)
- 1.10 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Cologne goals. Columns: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cologne | 48% | 2.09 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.31 |
| No | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Cologne or draw) | 72% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Borussia M.Gladbach) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cologne win by 2+ | 34% | 2.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Cologne and Borussia M.Gladbach recent form
FC Cologne
2W 1D 3L
Borussia M.Gladbach
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Cologne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Borussia M.Gladbach away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 4.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Cologne at home only, Borussia M.Gladbach away only.
Injuries & availability
FC Cologne
- A. Castro-Montes muscle injury
-
T. Dallinga
knee injury
-
T. Hubers
knee injury
Borussia M.Gladbach
-
E. Leopold
knee injury
-
F. Honorat
muscle injury
-
J. Castrop
shoulder injury
-
N. Kuhn
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: FC Cologne 1 · draws 2 · Borussia M.Gladbach 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | FC Cologne | 3-3 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
| 2025-11-08 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 3-1 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2024-03-09 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 3-3 | FC Cologne | Bundesliga |
| 2023-10-22 | FC Cologne | 3-1 | Borussia M.Gladbach | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen — match page 2026-10-09
- Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen 2026-10-10
- Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Augsburg vs Bayern Munich 2026-10-10
- Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart 2026-10-10
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt — match page 2026-10-10
- Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- FC Cologne, next: Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne analysis