Why this pick: SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SC Paderborn 07 1, Freiburg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg: model vs market
| Source | SC Paderborn 07 | Draw | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Market | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Published | 27% | 25% | 47% |
| Edge | +5% | -2% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Freiburg, 26 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 2.90 | 3.68 | +0.78 |
| Draw | 3.72 | 3.73 | +0.01 |
| Freiburg | 2.49 | 1.97 | -0.52 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SC Paderborn 07 and Freiburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.04
- Attack rating (SC Paderborn 07 / Freiburg)
- 1.14 / 1.49
- Defence rating (SC Paderborn 07 / Freiburg)
- 0.97 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Columns: Freiburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Paderborn 07 | 27% | 3.66 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Freiburg | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SC Paderborn 07 or draw) | 53% | 1.90 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Freiburg) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win by 2+ | 27% | 3.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
SC Paderborn 07 and Freiburg recent form
SC Paderborn 07
2W 2D 2L
Freiburg
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
SC Paderborn 07 absences
-
F. Gotze
injury
-
L. Eickel
back injury
-
N. Awortwie-Grant
knee injury
-
S. Michel
muscle injury
-
T. Gayret
knee injury
Freiburg absences
-
P. Osterhage
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Freiburg head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 3 · draws 1 · Freiburg 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-01 | Freiburg | 1-3 | SC Paderborn 07 | DFB Pokal |
| 2020-01-25 | Freiburg | 0-2 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 2019-08-24 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1-3 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| 2016-04-29 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1-2 | Freiburg | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2015-11-22 | Freiburg | 4-1 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2015-05-02 | Freiburg | 1-2 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 2014-12-06 | SC Paderborn 07 | 1-1 | Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
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- Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin 2026-09-05
- FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern Munich — team news & stats 2026-09-05
- Hamburger SV vs Mainz 05 2026-09-06
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Before and after this match
- SC Paderborn 07, next: Borussia Dortmund v SC Paderborn 07 analysis
- Freiburg, previous: Freiburg vs Werder Bremen prediction
- Freiburg, next: Freiburg vs Borussia M.Gladbach prediction