Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 preview
Freiburg has a 54% probability of winning against FC Schalke 04, who sit at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to the model. Freiburg's expected goals stand at 1.73, while FC Schalke 04's is lower at 1.18.
Both teams have shown recent form, with Freiburg recording five wins and a draw in their last six matches, while FC Schalke 04 has three wins, two draws, and a loss in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is B. The disparity in expected goals raises questions about Schalke's attacking capabilities.
Why this pick: Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Freiburg 10, FC Schalke 04 4). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04: model vs market
| Source | Freiburg | Draw | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Published | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Edge | -14% | +6% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Freiburg, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 1.61 | 1.62 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.16 | 3.99 | -0.17 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 4.90 | 5.15 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.90
- Attack rating (Freiburg / FC Schalke 04)
- 1.28 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Freiburg / FC Schalke 04)
- 0.87 / 0.73
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Freiburg goals. Columns: FC Schalke 04 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Freiburg | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| FC Schalke 04 | 20% | 4.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Freiburg or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Schalke 04) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Freiburg win by 2+ | 23% | 4.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 recent form
Freiburg
5W 1D 0L
FC Schalke 04
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Freiburg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
FC Schalke 04 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Freiburg at home only, FC Schalke 04 away only.
Injuries & availability
FC Schalke 04
-
D. Ljubicic
knee injury
- T. Becker ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
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