RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt preview
RasenBallsport Leipzig has a 57% probability of winning against Eintracht Frankfurt, who sit at 23%. The expected goals are 2.63 for Leipzig compared to 2.15 for Frankfurt. This suggests a potential advantage for Leipzig, but it does not guarantee a victory.
The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 7%. There is an 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and an 81% likelihood that both teams will score. Recent form shows Leipzig with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, while Frankfurt has 2 wins. The confidence grade is A, but it remains uncertain how recent performances will translate into this fixture.
Why this pick: RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (RasenBallsport Leipzig 10, Eintracht Frankfurt 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt: model vs market
| Source | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Draw | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 22% | 35% |
| Market | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Published | 56% | 20% | 24% |
| Edge | -17% | +2% | +16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 2.15.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt odds movement
Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 44 snapshots since 2026-09-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1.53 | 1.58 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 4.72 | 4.75 | +0.03 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 5.12 | 4.82 | -0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.78
- Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 1.31 / 1.42
- Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 1.04 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 81%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.91 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 24% | 4.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81% | 1.23 |
| No | 19% | 5.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Eintracht Frankfurt) | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+ | 27% | 3.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and Eintracht Frankfurt recent form
RasenBallsport Leipzig
3W 0D 3L
Eintracht Frankfurt
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
RasenBallsport Leipzig at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
Eintracht Frankfurt away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: RasenBallsport Leipzig at home only, Eintracht Frankfurt away only.
Injuries & availability
RasenBallsport Leipzig
-
A. Ouedraogo
shoulder injury
-
B. Gruda
muscle injury
-
C. Baumgartner
thigh injury
-
M. Guiu
hamstring injury
-
R. Reitz
muscle injury
Eintracht Frankfurt
-
F. Chaibi
lacking match fitness
-
J. Maluze
thigh injury
-
J. Ngankam
hamstring injury
-
M. Pimpong
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: RasenBallsport Leipzig 6 · draws 1 · Eintracht Frankfurt 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1-3 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-06 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 6-0 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-26 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4-0 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-15 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2024-12-04 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3-0 | Eintracht Frankfurt | DFB Pokal |
| 2024-05-18 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2-2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2024-01-13 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2023-06-03 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2-0 | Eintracht Frankfurt | DFB Pokal |
| 2023-02-25 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2023-01-07 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 2-4 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Friendlies Clubs |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
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- Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — team news & stats 2026-10-10
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- Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart 2026-10-10
- FC Cologne v Borussia M.Gladbach — match page 2026-10-11
- Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Eintracht Frankfurt, next: Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Cologne analysis