Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 preview
Inter's probability of winning is 81%, while Parma Calcio 1913 sits at just 6%. The expected goals are 2.99 for Inter compared to 1.03 for Parma Calcio 1913. This suggests a significant disparity in attacking potential, though it does not guarantee a straightforward outcome.
Inter's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, contrasted with Parma Calcio 1913's 1 win in the same period. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring with an 8% probability. Despite Inter's strong head-to-head record of 7 wins in the last 10 encounters, the lack of recent performance from Parma raises doubts about their ability to compete effectively.
Why this pick: Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Inter 10, Parma Calcio 1913 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913: model vs market
| Source | Inter | Draw | Parma Calcio 1913 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76% | 16% | 9% |
| Market | 83% | 11% | 5% |
| Published | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Edge | -8% | +4% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.99 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.17, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 1.13 | 1.14 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 8.93 | 8.55 | -0.38 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 17.50 | 17.44 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Inter and Parma Calcio 1913 expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.02
- Attack rating (Inter / Parma Calcio 1913)
- 1.73 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Inter / Parma Calcio 1913)
- 1.13 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Parma Calcio 1913 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 82% | 1.23 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.18 | |
| Parma Calcio 1913 | 6% | 15.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inter or draw) | 94% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Parma Calcio 1913) | 18% | 5.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 58% | 1.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Inter and Parma Calcio 1913 recent form
Inter
4W 1D 1L
Parma Calcio 1913
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inter at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Parma Calcio 1913 away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inter at home only, Parma Calcio 1913 away only.
Injuries & availability
Inter
- C. Jones thigh injury
-
J. Stones
injury
Parma Calcio 1913
-
A. Bernabe
thigh injury
- D. Drobnic arm injury
-
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
groin injury
- M. Frigan injury
- P. Almqvist calf injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Inter 7 · draws 3 · Parma Calcio 1913 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Inter | 2-0 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2026-01-07 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 0-2 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2025-04-05 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 2-2 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2024-12-06 | Inter | 3-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2023-01-10 | Inter | 2-1 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Coppa Italia |
| 2021-08-08 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 0-2 | Inter | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-03-04 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1-2 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2020-10-31 | Inter | 2-2 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
| 2020-06-28 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1-2 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2019-10-26 | Inter | 2-2 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A |
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