Napoli vs Frosinone preview
Napoli has a 54% probability of winning against Frosinone, who sit at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 6% chance of occurring. Napoli's expected goals are 1.01, while Frosinone's are higher at 1.71. This suggests that while Napoli may be favoured to win, their scoring potential is lower than Frosinone's.
Recent form shows Napoli with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Frosinone has 3 wins in their last 6. Napoli has 1 win and 1 draw in their last 2 head-to-head encounters with Frosinone, who have not won any. The confidence grade is B, indicating a moderate level of certainty, but the contrasting expected goals figures create uncertainty regarding the outcome.
Why this pick: Napoli vs Frosinone
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Napoli 10, Frosinone 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Napoli vs Frosinone: model vs market
| Source | Napoli | Draw | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 28% | 51% |
| Market | 66% | 20% | 15% |
| Published | 54% | 22% | 24% |
| Edge | -46% | +9% | +37% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Napoli vs Frosinone odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Napoli, 46 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 1.40 | 1.44 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 4.93 | 4.78 | -0.15 |
| Frosinone | 7.23 | 6.50 | -0.73 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Napoli and Frosinone expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Napoli / Frosinone)
- 1.16 / 1.54
- Defence rating (Napoli / Frosinone)
- 0.94 / 0.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Napoli vs Frosinone score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Frosinone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Napoli vs Frosinone goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Napoli vs Frosinone
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 54% | 1.85 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Frosinone | 24% | 4.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Napoli or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Frosinone) | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Napoli win by 2+ | 8% | 12.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Napoli and Frosinone recent form
Napoli
2W 1D 3L
Frosinone
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Napoli at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Frosinone away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Napoli at home only, Frosinone away only.
Injuries & availability
Napoli
-
A. Buongiorno
knee injury
-
A. Meret
muscle injury
-
A. Vergara
calf injury
-
Alisson Santos
muscle injury
- C. Favasuli thigh injury
-
F. Anguissa
groin injury
-
Giovane
groin injury
-
L. Marianucci
knee injury
- M. Olivera groin injury
Frosinone
-
A. Raimondo
health problems
- D. Birligea muscle injury
-
F. Grillitsch
thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Napoli vs Frosinone head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Napoli 5 · draws 1 · Frosinone 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-14 | Napoli | 2-2 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2023-12-19 | Napoli | 0-4 | Frosinone | Coppa Italia |
| 2023-08-19 | Frosinone | 1-3 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2019-04-28 | Frosinone | 0-2 | Napoli | Serie A |
| 2018-12-08 | Napoli | 4-0 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2016-05-14 | Napoli | 4-0 | Frosinone | Serie A |
| 2016-01-10 | Frosinone | 1-5 | Napoli | Serie A |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Genoa vs Fiorentina — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Como v Roma — match page 2026-10-11
- Lazio v Monza — match page 2026-10-11
- Lecce vs Bologna 2026-10-11
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Cagliari vs Juventus 2026-10-11
- Atalanta vs Venezia 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Frosinone, next: Frosinone – Sassuolo, 2026-10-16