Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 5

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain

· Orange Vélodrome, Marseille· Referee Francois Letexier

Full time1 – 2

BCCFC prediction was Paris Saint Germain to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MarseilleDrawParis Saint Germain

Why this pick: Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Marseille 10, Paris Saint Germain 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

MarseilleParis Saint Germain
2.01 xG per 90 1.80
1.84 npxG per 90 1.80
9.5 PPDA 11.7
9.4 Deep completions per 90 9.3
1.48 xPTS per 90 1.67

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMarseilleDrawParis Saint Germain
Model28%20%53%
Market15%18%67%
Published18%19%63%
Edge+13%+1%-14%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.91.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 28 snapshots since 2026-09-07.

Opened 1.72Now 1.44 -0.28
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Marseille4.786.38+1.60
Draw4.475.20+0.73
Paris Saint Germain1.721.44-0.28

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Marseille and Paris Saint Germain expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.91Marseille
2.43Paris Saint Germain
Total expected goals
4.34
Attack rating (Marseille / Paris Saint Germain)
1.23 / 1.47
Defence rating (Marseille / Paris Saint Germain)
1.33 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.6% 3.3% 4.2% 3.4% 3.7% 1 2.4% 6.5% 7.7% 6.2% 6.7% 2 2.4% 5.7% 7.0% 5.6% 6.1% 3 1.4% 3.5% 4.2% 3.4% 3.7% 4+ 1.0% 2.4% 2.9% 2.3% 2.5%

Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Paris Saint Germain goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 93%
Over 2.5 80%
Over 3.5 61%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Marseille18%5.51
Draw19%5.33
Paris Saint Germain63%1.59
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.28
Under 2.522%4.55
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%4.00
Double chance1X (Marseille or draw)37%2.71
12 (either side)81%1.23
X2 (draw or Paris Saint Germain)82%1.22
Handicap -1Paris Saint Germain win by 2+32%3.09
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Marseille and Paris Saint Germain recent form

Marseille 2W 0D 4L
Paris Saint Germain 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Marseille at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2

Paris Saint Germain away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3

League matches this season before kick-off: Marseille at home only, Paris Saint Germain away only.

Injuries & availability

Marseille absences

  • G. Kondogbia injury
  • T. Nnadi injury

Paris Saint Germain absences

  • A. Hakimi thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Marseille lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. de Lange
  2. 33 Emerson
  3. 21 N. Aguerd
  4. 4 C. Egan-Riley
  5. 22 T. Weah
  6. 23 P. Højbjerg
  7. 8 H. Abdelli
  8. 14 Igor Paixão
  9. 9 A. Gouiri
  10. 77 A. Harit
  11. 11 N. Maupay

Bench: A. Gomes, D. Cornelius, U. Garcia, F. Moumbagna, T. Mmadi, E. Mbondo, K. Abdallah, K. Bezahaf, T. Vermot

Paris Saint Germain lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 39 M. Safonov
  2. 25 Nuno Mendes
  3. 51 W. Pacho
  4. 5 Marquinhos
  5. 33 W. Zaïre-Emery
  6. 8 Fabián Ruiz
  7. 17 Vitinha
  8. 87 João Neves
  9. 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
  10. 10 O. Dembélé
  11. 14 D. Doué

Bench: Beraldo, I. Zabarnyi, Ferran Torres, M. Akliouche, L. Digne, M. Godts, Senny Mayulu, Pedro Fernández, L. Chevalier

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Marseille 2 · draws 1 · Paris Saint Germain 7.

MarseilleDrawsParis Saint Germain
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-08Paris Saint Germain5-0MarseilleLigue 1
2026-01-08Paris Saint Germain2-2MarseilleTrophée des Champions
2025-09-22Marseille1-0Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2025-03-16Paris Saint Germain3-1MarseilleLigue 1
2024-10-27Marseille0-3Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2024-03-31Marseille0-2Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2023-09-24Paris Saint Germain4-0MarseilleLigue 1
2023-02-26Marseille0-3Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2023-02-08Marseille2-1Paris Saint GermainCoupe de France
2022-10-16Paris Saint Germain1-0MarseilleLigue 1

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Before and after this match