Why this pick: Lyon vs Rennes
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lyon 10, Rennes 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lyon vs Rennes: model vs market
| Source | Lyon | Draw | Rennes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 23% | 29% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Published | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.48.
- The market prices Lyon below the model: +3.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lyon vs Rennes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lyon, 27 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 2.00 | 2.14 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.78 | -0.22 |
| Rennes | 3.50 | 3.16 | -0.34 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lyon and Rennes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Lyon / Rennes)
- 1.13 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Lyon / Rennes)
- 0.94 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lyon vs Rennes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Rennes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lyon vs Rennes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lyon vs Rennes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 45% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Rennes | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.55 |
| No | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lyon or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Rennes) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win by 2+ | 27% | 3.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lyon and Rennes recent form
Lyon
3W 2D 1L
Rennes
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lyon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Rennes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Lyon at home only, Rennes away only.
Injuries & availability
Lyon absences
-
J. Duranville
muscle injury
-
N. Kamara
inactive
-
N. Tagliafico
muscle injury
-
R. Himbert
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Lyon lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 D. Greif
- 16 Abner
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 20 F. Bacher
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 23 T. Morton
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 10 P. Šulc
- 8 C. Tolisso
- 7 E. Nuamah
- 17 L. Openda
Bench: T. Tessmann, Keito Nakamura, K. Merah, R. Kluivert, Clinton Mata, K. Boudache, R. Descamps, M. Ouédraogo, N. Nartey
Rennes lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 30 B. Samba
- 26 Q. Merlin
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 48 A. Ait Boudlal
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 21 V. Rongier
- 70 A. Nordin
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 45 M. Camara
- 12 Eliezer Mayenda
- 22 B. Dia
Bench: E. Lepaul, L. Blas, Mousa Tamari, B. Reynolds, N. Lemaître, S. Szymański, M. Nagida, A. Rouault, H. Do Marcolino
Lyon vs Rennes head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lyon 4 · draws 0 · Rennes 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Lyon | 4-2 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Rennes | 3-1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Lyon | 4-1 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-08-18 | Rennes | 3-0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-01-26 | Lyon | 2-3 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Rennes | 0-1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-04-09 | Lyon | 3-1 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-10-16 | Rennes | 3-2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-03-13 | Lyon | 2-4 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-11-07 | Rennes | 4-1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Monaco v Lens — match page 2026-09-18
- Paris FC v Strasbourg — match page 2026-09-19
- Angers v Estac Troyes — match page 2026-09-19
- Toulouse vs Le Havre — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Le Mans vs Lorient — team news & stats 2026-09-19
- Auxerre vs Brest 2026-09-20
- Nice vs Lille 2026-09-20
- Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-09-20
Before and after this match
- Lyon, previous: Paris FC vs Lyon: odds and pick
- Lyon, next: Lens vs Lyon prediction
- Rennes, previous: Rennes v Marseille analysis
- Rennes, next: Rennes vs Auxerre prediction