Why this pick: Lille vs Estac Troyes
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lille 10, Estac Troyes 3). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lille vs Estac Troyes: model vs market
| Source | Lille | Draw | Estac Troyes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Published | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Edge | -34% | +4% | +30% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lille vs Estac Troyes odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lille, 29 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 1.27 | 1.42 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 4.95 | 4.75 | -0.20 |
| Estac Troyes | 9.00 | 7.50 | -1.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lille and Estac Troyes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.19
- Attack rating (Lille / Estac Troyes)
- 0.98 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Lille / Estac Troyes)
- 1.06 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lille vs Estac Troyes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Estac Troyes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lille vs Estac Troyes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lille vs Estac Troyes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lille | 59% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Estac Troyes | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lille or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Estac Troyes) | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lille win by 2+ | 16% | 6.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lille and Estac Troyes recent form
Lille
3W 1D 2L
Estac Troyes
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lille at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Estac Troyes away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Lille at home only, Estac Troyes away only.
Injuries & availability
Lille absences
-
H. Igamane
knee injury
Estac Troyes absences
-
A. Phliponeau
knee injury
-
I. Boura
injury
-
M. Ifnaoui
injury
-
P. Gozzi
muscle injury
-
Y. Titi
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Lille lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 B. Özer
- 15 R. Perraud
- 4 Alexsandro Ribeiro
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 22 Tiago Santos
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 17 N. Mukau
- 19 B. Önal
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 18 A. Ueda
Bench: E. Mbappé, O. Giroud, O. Sahraoui, O. Gill, M. Kjærgaard, B. André, T. Nianzou, C. Verdonk, G. Perrin
Estac Troyes lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 33 P. Beach
- 3 A. Ouzenadji
- 4 M. Diaz
- 6 A. Monfray
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 8 M. Diop
- 17 A. Mille
- 22 H. Picard
- 29 D. Karim
- 7 K. Diawara
- 9 J. Le Douaron
Bench: I. Gomis, R. Ripart, T. Nkada, Noah Donkor, I. Soukouna, Y. Kone, H. Konaté
Lille vs Estac Troyes head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lille 4 · draws 3 · Estac Troyes 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-03 | Estac Troyes | 1-1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-01-15 | Lille | 5-1 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-01-08 | Lille | 2-0 | Estac Troyes | Coupe de France |
| 2022-05-01 | Estac Troyes | 3-0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-12-04 | Lille | 2-1 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 2018-01-20 | Estac Troyes | 1-0 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2017-10-14 | Lille | 2-2 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 2016-01-23 | Lille | 1-3 | Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| 2015-11-21 | Estac Troyes | 1-1 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2015-10-28 | Lille | 2-1 | Estac Troyes | Coupe de la Ligue |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Rennes v Marseille — match page 2026-09-11
- Strasbourg vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Lorient vs Toulouse 2026-09-12
- Auxerre v Nice — match page 2026-09-12
- Le Havre vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Paris FC vs Lyon 2026-09-12
- Le Mans vs Lens — team news & stats 2026-09-13
- Brest vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Lille, previous: Toulouse – Lille, 2026-09-03
- Lille, next: Nice – Lille, 2026-09-20
- Estac Troyes, previous: Estac Troyes vs Strasbourg: odds and pick
- Estac Troyes, next: Angers vs Estac Troyes: odds and pick