Why this pick: Le Mans vs Lens
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Le Mans 3, Lens 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Le Mans vs Lens: model vs market
| Source | Le Mans | Draw | Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 22% | 41% |
| Market | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Published | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| Edge | +17% | 0% | -16% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Le Mans vs Lens odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lens, 29 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 4.60 | 4.82 | +0.22 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.24 | +0.14 |
| Lens | 1.56 | 1.67 | +0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Le Mans and Lens expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.73
- Attack rating (Le Mans / Lens)
- 1.19 / 1.68
- Defence rating (Le Mans / Lens)
- 0.89 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Le Mans vs Lens score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Le Mans goals. Columns: Lens goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Le Mans vs Lens goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Le Mans vs Lens
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Mans | 24% | 4.15 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Lens | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Le Mans or draw) | 47% | 2.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Lens) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win by 2+ | 22% | 4.49 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Le Mans and Lens recent form
Le Mans
1W 4D 1L
Lens
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Le Mans at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Lens away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Le Mans at home only, Lens away only.
Injuries & availability
Le Mans absences
-
E. Colas
injury
-
E. Quarshie
coach's decision
-
L. Buades
knock
-
M. Rossignol
coach's decision
-
T. Eyoum
coach's decision
-
W. Harhouz
coach's decision
Lens absences
-
J. Chavez
thigh injury
-
M. Nawrocki
injury
-
S. Abdulhamid
contusion
-
S. Baidoo
knee injury
-
S. Sagnan
suspended
-
Y. Titraoui
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Le Mans vs Lens head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Le Mans 2 · draws 1 · Lens 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-07-27 | Le Mans | 1-2 | Lens | Ligue 2 |
| 2013-05-24 | Le Mans | 2-1 | Lens | Ligue 2 |
| 2012-07-28 | Lens | 2-2 | Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| 2012-04-06 | Lens | 1-3 | Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| 2011-11-26 | Le Mans | 0-1 | Lens | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Rennes v Marseille — match page 2026-09-11
- Strasbourg vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Lorient vs Toulouse 2026-09-12
- Auxerre v Nice — match page 2026-09-12
- Le Havre vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Paris FC vs Lyon 2026-09-12
- Lille v Estac Troyes — match page 2026-09-13
- Brest vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Le Mans, previous: Nice – Le Mans, 2026-09-05
- Le Mans, next: Le Mans v Lorient analysis
- Lens, previous: Lens vs Lorient prediction
- Lens, next: Monaco v Lens analysis