Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 4

Le Havre vs Angers

· Stade Océane, Le Havre· Referee Ruddy Buquet

Full time0 – 0

BCCFC prediction was Le Havre to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Le HavreDrawAngers

Why this pick: Le Havre vs Angers

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Le Havre 10, Angers 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Le HavreAngers
1.33 xG per 90 1.30
1.10 npxG per 90 1.07
10.2 PPDA 19.2
5.1 Deep completions per 90 3.3
1.02 xPTS per 90 1.02

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Le Havre vs Angers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLe HavreDrawAngers
Model43%23%33%
Market37%29%34%
Published38%28%34%
Edge+7%-6%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.51.
  • The market prices Le Havre below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Le Havre vs Angers odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Le Havre, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 2.05Now 2.62 +0.57
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Le Havre2.052.62+0.57
Draw3.253.29+0.04
Angers3.302.80-0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Le Havre and Angers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.85Le Havre
1.51Angers
Total expected goals
3.36
Attack rating (Le Havre / Angers)
0.91 / 0.94
Defence rating (Le Havre / Angers)
1.28 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Le Havre vs Angers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 5.5% 4.4% 2.2% 1.2% 1 6.4% 10.4% 7.7% 3.9% 2.0% 2 5.9% 8.9% 6.7% 3.4% 1.8% 3 3.4% 5.2% 3.9% 2.0% 1.0% 4+ 2.2% 3.4% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7%

Rows: Le Havre goals. Columns: Angers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Le Havre vs Angers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Le Havre vs Angers

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Le Havre38%2.61
Draw28%3.61
Angers34%2.94
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.57
Under 2.536%2.74
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.54
No35%2.84
Double chance1X (Le Havre or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Angers)62%1.62
Handicap -1Le Havre win by 2+23%4.33
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Le Havre and Angers recent form

Le Havre 1W 2D 3L
Angers 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Le Havre at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2

Angers away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Le Havre at home only, Angers away only.

Injuries & availability

Le Havre absences

  • A. Toure knee injury
  • F. Mambimbi injury
  • J. Mwanga suspended
  • L. Mpasi-Nzau injury
  • P. Argney injury
  • R. Ndiaye groin injury
  • S. Zagadou injury
  • T. Pembele inactive

Angers absences

  • H. Belkebla thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Le Havre lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 93 G. Gallon
  2. 5 A. Touba
  3. 12 E. Jelert
  4. 15 A. Seko
  5. 17 K. Mizuta
  6. 7 A. Richardson
  7. 26 S. Ebonog
  8. 20 D. Ouziad
  9. 30 S. Nakamura
  10. 9 J. Maja
  11. 25 M. Samatta

Bench: V. Sasso, G. Zohouri, E. Koffi Vinette, R. Fofana, Alex Teixeira, I. Bouneb, D. Mosengo

Angers lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Anthony Lopes
  2. 17 J. Kalulu
  3. 21 J. Lefort
  4. 4 O. Camara
  5. 2 C. Arcus
  6. 8 B. van den Boomen
  7. 14 Y. Belkhdim
  8. 36 Bane Diatta
  9. 10 A. Sbaï
  10. 18 J. Allevinah
  11. 19 A. El Ouazzani

Bench: L. Mouton, U. Simbakoli, P. Peter, Djibirin Harouna, M. Zinga, Marius Louër, E. Biumla, A. Bermont, L. Rao-Lisoa

Le Havre vs Angers head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Le Havre 3 · draws 3 · Angers 4.

Le HavreDrawsAngers
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-18Angers1-1Le HavreLigue 1
2026-01-04Le Havre2-1AngersLigue 1
2025-07-26Le Havre0-0AngersFriendlies Clubs
2025-02-02Angers1-1Le HavreLigue 1
2024-12-01Le Havre0-1AngersLigue 1
2020-07-28Le Havre3-1AngersFriendlies Clubs
2015-03-20Angers1-0Le HavreLigue 2
2014-10-17Le Havre1-0AngersLigue 2
2014-04-11Angers1-0Le HavreLigue 2
2013-11-08Le Havre1-2AngersLigue 2

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match