Why this pick: Auxerre vs Nice
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Auxerre 10, Nice 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Auxerre vs Nice: model vs market
| Source | Auxerre | Draw | Nice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 24% | 35% |
| Market | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Edge | +9% | -5% | -3% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Auxerre vs Nice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nice, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 2.30 | 2.88 | +0.58 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.30 | +0.05 |
| Nice | 2.80 | 2.49 | -0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Auxerre and Nice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Auxerre / Nice)
- 0.93 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Auxerre / Nice)
- 1.36 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Auxerre vs Nice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Auxerre goals. Columns: Nice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Auxerre vs Nice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Auxerre vs Nice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auxerre | 35% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Nice | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Auxerre or draw) | 63% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Nice) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nice win by 2+ | 17% | 5.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Auxerre and Nice recent form
Auxerre
3W 0D 3L
Nice
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Auxerre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Nice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Auxerre at home only, Nice away only.
Injuries & availability
Auxerre absences
-
A. Diousse
knee injury
-
B. Okoh
knee injury
-
M. Senaya
injury
-
S. Fofana
groin injury
-
T. Siwe
muscle injury
Nice absences
-
A. Mendy
knee injury
-
L. Abergel
knee injury
-
M. Bombito
leg injury
-
M. Sanson
surgery
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Auxerre lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 23 M. Diop
- 92 C. Akpa
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 15 C. Makosso
- 27 L. Sy
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 5 K. Danois
- 3 R. Labeau Lascary
- 22 F. Oppegård
- 10 D. Namaso
- 9 C. Archer
Bench: P. Nardi, N. Ahamada, P. Ekwah, S. Diomandé, R. Faivre, R. Mandengue, L. Dioubate, E. Legros, Aristide Zossou
Nice lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 5 Mohamed Abdelmonem
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 28 A. Witsel
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 92 J. Clauss
- 11 E. Wahi
- 7 G. Hein
- 9 M. Amoura
Bench: A. Abdi, H. Boudaoui, S. Diop, I. Jansson, N. Ngoumou, A. Camara, D. Morana, T. Boulhendi, E. Pereira
Auxerre vs Nice head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Auxerre 3 · draws 4 · Nice 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Auxerre | 2-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Nice | 3-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-14 | Nice | 1-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-08-18 | Auxerre | 2-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-01-06 | Nice | 0-0 | Auxerre | Coupe de France |
| 2023-03-03 | Nice | 1-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-10-16 | Auxerre | 1-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2018-10-31 | Nice | 3-2 | Auxerre | Coupe de la Ligue |
| 2012-04-21 | Nice | 1-0 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2011-12-11 | Auxerre | 2-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Rennes v Marseille — match page 2026-09-11
- Strasbourg vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Lorient vs Toulouse 2026-09-12
- Le Havre vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Paris FC vs Lyon 2026-09-12
- Lille v Estac Troyes — match page 2026-09-13
- Le Mans vs Lens — team news & stats 2026-09-13
- Brest vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Auxerre, previous: Lyon v Auxerre analysis
- Auxerre, next: Auxerre vs Brest prediction
- Nice, previous: Nice – Le Mans, 2026-09-05
- Nice, next: Nice – Lille, 2026-09-20