Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 4

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain

· Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest· Referee Willy Delajod

Full time0 – 1

BCCFC prediction was Paris Saint Germain to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BrestDrawParis Saint Germain

Why this pick: Brest vs Paris Saint Germain

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brest 10, Paris Saint Germain 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BrestParis Saint Germain
1.80 xG per 90 1.90
1.73 npxG per 90 1.82
11.1 PPDA 11.1
4.1 Deep completions per 90 9.4
1.42 xPTS per 90 1.80

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBrestDrawParis Saint Germain
Model31%21%48%
Market9%14%77%
Published14%16%70%
Edge+22%+7%-29%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 30 snapshots since 2026-08-30.

Opened 1.27Now 1.23 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Brest7.5011.00+3.50
Draw5.706.70+1.00
Paris Saint Germain1.271.23-0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Brest and Paris Saint Germain expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.93Brest
2.21Paris Saint Germain
Total expected goals
4.14
Attack rating (Brest / Paris Saint Germain)
1.27 / 1.53
Defence rating (Brest / Paris Saint Germain)
1.15 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.9% 3.7% 4.3% 3.2% 2.9% 1 3.0% 7.3% 7.9% 5.8% 5.4% 2 2.9% 6.5% 7.2% 5.3% 4.9% 3 1.8% 4.0% 4.4% 3.2% 3.0% 4+ 1.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.2% 2.1%

Rows: Brest goals. Columns: Paris Saint Germain goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 77%
Over 3.5 57%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Brest vs Paris Saint Germain

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Brest14%7.02
Draw16%6.31
Paris Saint Germain70%1.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.01
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.36
No27%3.75
Double chance1X (Brest or draw)30%3.32
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Paris Saint Germain)86%1.17
Handicap -1Paris Saint Germain win by 2+28%3.59
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Brest and Paris Saint Germain recent form

Brest 1W 3D 2L
Paris Saint Germain 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Brest at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

Paris Saint Germain away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

League matches this season before kick-off: Brest at home only, Paris Saint Germain away only.

Injuries & availability

Brest absences

  • B. Chardonnet calf injury
  • M. Diambou ankle injury
  • N. Edjouma muscle injury
  • R. Cagnon shoulder injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Brest lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 E. Selvik
  2. 2 B. Locko
  3. 4 G. Lloris
  4. 71 R. Le Guen
  5. 70 K. Lala
  6. 8 H. Magnetti
  7. 13 J. Chotard
  8. 9 P. Mboup
  9. 23 K. Doumbia
  10. 10 G. Versini
  11. 19 L. Ajorque

Bench: J. Nonge Boende, J. Bourgault, L. Zogbe, Ibrahim Yayiya Kante, L. Tousart, M. Patouillet, L. C. Laine M., D. N´Guessan

Paris Saint Germain lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 39 M. Safonov
  2. 25 Nuno Mendes
  3. 51 W. Pacho
  4. 5 Marquinhos
  5. 2 A. Hakimi
  6. 87 João Neves
  7. 17 Vitinha
  8. 33 W. Zaïre-Emery
  9. 7 K. Kvaratskhelia
  10. 9 Ferran Torres
  11. 10 O. Dembélé

Bench: Beraldo, Fabián Ruiz, M. Akliouche, L. Digne, D. Doué, L. Hernández, M. Godts, Pedro Fernández, L. Chevalier

Brest vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Brest 0 · draws 1 · Paris Saint Germain 9.

BrestDrawsParis Saint Germain
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Paris Saint Germain1-0BrestLigue 1
2025-10-25Brest0-3Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2025-02-19Paris Saint Germain7-0BrestUEFA Champions League
2025-02-11Brest0-3Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
2025-02-01Brest2-5Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2024-09-14Paris Saint Germain3-1BrestLigue 1
2024-02-07Paris Saint Germain3-1BrestCoupe de France
2024-01-28Paris Saint Germain2-2BrestLigue 1
2023-10-29Brest2-3Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2023-03-11Brest1-2Paris Saint GermainLigue 1

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Before and after this match