Why this pick: Lorient vs Toulouse
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lorient 10, Toulouse 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lorient vs Toulouse: model vs market
| Source | Lorient | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Market | 40% | 29% | 32% |
| Published | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | +4% | -5% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.40.
- The market prices Lorient below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lorient vs Toulouse odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lorient, 28 snapshots since 2026-08-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 2.55 | 2.40 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.30 | +0.10 |
| Toulouse | 2.55 | 3.00 | +0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lorient and Toulouse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.16
- Attack rating (Lorient / Toulouse)
- 0.98 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Lorient / Toulouse)
- 1.02 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lorient vs Toulouse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lorient goals. Columns: Toulouse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lorient vs Toulouse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lorient vs Toulouse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Toulouse | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lorient or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Toulouse) | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lorient win by 2+ | 23% | 4.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lorient and Toulouse recent form
Lorient
2W 2D 2L
Toulouse
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lorient at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
Toulouse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Lorient at home only, Toulouse away only.
Injuries & availability
Lorient absences
-
B. Fadiga
injury
Toulouse absences
-
A. Donnum
personal reasons
-
A. Francis
muscle injury
-
G. Restes
injury
-
R. Nicolaisen
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Lorient lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 32 N. Adjei
- 3 M. Talbi
- 20 D. Sylla
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 72 N. Mbamba
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 77 P. Katseris
- 17 J. Makengo
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 18 I. Baldé
Bench: A. Georgen, I. Jensen, T. Le Bris, A. Tosin, S. Faye, B. Kamara, M. Kone, N. Obaretin, A. Avom
Toulouse lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 60 M. Niflore
- 12 C. Tapé
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 22 R. Messali
- 31 N. Schmidt
- 23 C. Cásseres
- 37 Y. Azizi
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 9 S. Hidalgo
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
Bench: T. Collin, A. Vossah, Julián Vignolo, S. Oppong, N. Sigur, M. Amougou, D. Odogu, C. Tengstedt, I. Diallo
Lorient vs Toulouse head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lorient 1 · draws 5 · Toulouse 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Toulouse | 1-0 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Lorient | 1-1 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Lorient | 1-2 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-12-03 | Toulouse | 1-1 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-04-23 | Lorient | 0-1 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-08-21 | Toulouse | 2-2 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2018-10-31 | Toulouse | 0-1 | Lorient | Coupe de la Ligue |
| 2017-02-08 | Lorient | 1-1 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2016-12-10 | Toulouse | 3-2 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2016-04-16 | Lorient | 1-1 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
- Rennes v Marseille — match page 2026-09-11
- Strasbourg vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Auxerre v Nice — match page 2026-09-12
- Le Havre vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-09-12
- Paris FC vs Lyon 2026-09-12
- Lille v Estac Troyes — match page 2026-09-13
- Le Mans vs Lens — team news & stats 2026-09-13
- Brest vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-09-13
Before and after this match
- Lorient, previous: Lens vs Lorient prediction
- Lorient, next: Le Mans v Lorient analysis
- Toulouse, previous: Toulouse – Lille, 2026-09-03
- Toulouse, next: Toulouse vs Le Havre: odds and pick